Rajdev Pandey, Patna
In Bihar, in the last three decades, the average rainfall in the month of July has decreased by 112 mm. Between 1981 and the 1990s, Bihar recorded an average rainfall of 426.27 mm every year in July. In comparison, in the next three decades 1991-2000, 2001-2010 and 2011-2020 decades (30 years), an average of 314.11 mm of rain per decade has been recorded. According to experts, the failure of monsoon in July is affecting the entire pattern of Kharif. It is being considered as a special trend of climate change.
This dangerous trend of rain
If we look at the figures of the first three years of the current decade 2021-2030, then there has been an unprecedented decrease in July rainfall in the first three years of the current decade by an average of 200 mm. 258.3 in July 2021, 134.7 in July 2022 and only 112.7 mm of rain has been recorded in July 2023 so far. This is a dangerous trend of July rains.
July rain trend changed in Bihar
At present, during the last four decades, the trend of July rains in Bihar has changed permanently. It can be understood in this way – in the decade from 1981 to 90, an average of 426.27 mm of rain was recorded every year, in the decade of 1991 to 2000, 293, in the decade of 2001-2010, an average of 332.81 and in the decade of 2011-20, only 316 mm of rain was recorded.
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Special facts related to July rains in Bihar
Before the year 1981, Bihar used to receive significant rainfall of 500 mm or more in July with a gap of two-three years. In the last 26 years, 500 mm or more rainfall has not been recorded even once. In the year 1981, 580.1 and in 2007, 549.4 mm of rain was recorded.
In the decade of 1981 to 1990, three times between 400 and 500 mm in July, twice between 1991 and 2000, once between 2001 and 2010 and twice between 2011 and 2020 have been recorded.
Last year in 2022, the monsoon was inactive for 19 days in July. This happened for the first time in the history of Bihar’s monsoon in 100 years.
Monsoon has been inactive or weak for eight days this year, this phase is still going on. In this way, climate change can be understood by the changing trend of July rains.
deleterious effect on the economy
The decreasing trend of July rains is going to prove fatal for the agricultural economy of Bihar. If we look at it in the context of paddy, then in the month of July, calla bursts on the traditional paddy crop. In other words, the hair starts coming out in the paddy. Less rain will have the opposite effect on it. Production will have more or less the same effect on other crops. If paddy is planted which ripens in less time, then its economic cost will increase. The most important thing is that the rabi crop will also be late. The second worst effect will be on the quality of mangoes, berries and other fruits as this is the main time for their ripening.
meteorologist’s opinion
There is definitely a trend of decreasing rainfall in July. In view of this, we will need a change in our agriculture pattern. There are reasons given for the weakening of the monsoon in July. Serious studies are being done in this direction. Broadly speaking, like last year, this year in July, the necessary system for monsoon rains is not being formed.
Anand Shankar, Senior Meteorologist IMD Patna
Farmers’ troubles increased
Let us tell you that this time the farmers are very upset due to the indifference of monsoon. Due to less rainfall, the district is fast moving towards drought. Due to lack of rain in the months of May and June, the farmers could not sow paddy straw in the fields on time. At the same time, after the rains in July, the farmers put the litter. But due to the weak monsoon rains, it is becoming difficult to save paddy seedlings in the fields and also to save the straws that have been dropped in the fields. The condition is that due to lack of rain, paddy planting will be very less. At the same time, the problems of the farmers are continuously increasing. On the other hand, this time he had high hopes for the monsoon rains. But he was disappointed.
