As a last push of Biden administration’s hope of defeating Russian forces, it is going to send cluster bombs to Ukraine soon. It may be mentioned here that, the US and its Western allies are desperately looking for seeing an end to the Ukraine crisis by the end of 2023, while if by this timeframe, Russia cannot be defeated, West shall exert pressure of Vladimir Zelensky in reaching into a peace deal with Moscow as the Western military and cash aid to Ukraine shall almost be dried-up by that time.
Cluster bombs are explosive munitions that also deploy smaller explosives after being fired. Officials are reportedly closer to approving the transfer of the munitions now than they have been at any other point during the war.
The move toward providing Ukraine with more advanced weapons comes as the nation’s counter-offensive into Russia has stalled.
Republican lawmakers have come out in support of supplying Ukraine with the bombs. Rep. Michael McCaul (R., Texas) has stated that the munitions could be effective at destroying the fortified Russian positions that have been proving troublesome for Ukraine. Congressional Democrats fall on the other side of the issue. Per a letter obtained by Politico, more than a dozen Senate Democrats have called on President Joe Biden to block any transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine. The Democrats argue that the potential humanitarian costs of using such bombs outweigh the strategic utility they provide.
Sixty-five percent of Americans support shipping weapons to Ukraine, per a recent Reuters poll, up from the 46 percent recorded in a poll conducted in May. The same poll found that Americans are also more likely to support a political candidate who is in favor of sending military aid to Ukraine.
In an opinion editorial, BLiTZ quoting a professor of the King’s College London said, “Professor Tim Willasey-Wilsey highlights that if Ukraine doesn’t defeat Russia in the coming six months, the West is likely to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate with Putin. But an acceptable negotiated outcome will be almost impossible to achieve.
Following Putin’s recent diplomatic successes, the West can ill afford another foreign policy failure”.
It may be mentioned here that, while Vladimir Zelensky is frantically trying to get Ukraine included in NATO, secretary-general of NATO Jens Stoltenberg sounded reassuring robust when he declared that all the alliance’s members “have agreed that Ukraine will become a member” but he omitted to mention a timeframe. Similarly, Boris Pistorius, defense minister of Germany has dampened any elation with the words “the door is open a crack, but this is not the time to decide now”.
Vladimir Zelensky possesses finely tuned antennae. He knows that the United States and Europe are getting tired of supplying military hardware and cash to Ukraine and are anxious about its economic and political effects in their own countries. The West is also running short of munitions. The United States, which has provided 75 percent of the military hardware to Ukraine is shortly to enter another electoral cycle when Joe Biden or a new Democrat candidate does not want to defend an expensive war against a resurgent Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. Ideally Joe Biden will want the war finished by the end of 2023 before the US primaries begin in early 2024. Working backwards, that mean peace or ceasefire negotiations between November 2023 and February 2024 when the fighting will have stopped for the winter.
Assuming that the spring offensives will begin in the next few weeks, that gives Zelensky and Ukraine six month to win the war – which in my opinion is a mission impossible since attacking is more difficult than defending. Furthermore, its Western allies have equipped Ukraine for a defensive war. Even if all the promised Leopard 2 tanks arrive in time, there are not enough to punch a hole in Russian defenses and exploit the opening as espoused by generals like Heinz Guderian or Georgy Zhukov. And most importantly, the Western allies have not provided Ukraine with the air power to support such an offensive. Vladimir Zelensky’s pleas for F-16s have been met with marked reluctance by most NATO members.
According to defense analysts, it would be impossible for the West to cow-tow Kremlin within the timeframe of six months and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been very successfully keeping soldiers at high- morale while Moscow has sufficient stock of munitions and military hardware to give a befitting lesson to Kiev, once it begins offensives in weeks.
