The popularity of President Vladimir Putin in Russia depends on three things. First, he provided political stability to Russia. Second, he led Russia on the path of development. And third, he restored Russia’s autonomy in foreign policy, which had been under Western influence during the previous period. After Lenin and Stalin, Putin has become the most popular leader of Russia. He has ruled Russia for the last 23 years without any major opposition. However, the Wagner rebellion has put a question mark on Russia’s stability and Putin’s hold.
Russia’s economy was already under pressure due to Western sanctions and now a Kremlin insider has rebelled. And this struggle has not been started by any outsider, but by Prigozhin, who was Putin’s confidant. In such a situation, experts have started raising uncomfortable questions on Putin’s influence in Russia. Going by Russian official statements, Putin appears to have handled the crisis well by negotiating with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner militia. But if we look beneath the surface, we find that a new process is underway. A rival power center is emerging in Russia. A power that cannot be easily suppressed.
Prigozhin’s supporters are more conservative, intolerant, and violent. He played a decisive role in the battle between Bakhmut and Soledar. Russian citizens trust them and they cannot be dismissed as agents of the West. Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus, but it is unclear what will happen to the millions of people who supported him and who now feel they have been wronged. Prigozhin represented an ultra-nationalist faction in Russia. Despite his questionable past, he became a popular figure in Russia. Wagner’s army fought with great vigor in the Russo-Ukraine war.
In polls, Prigozhin appeared to be more popular than Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. A large number of people believe that Russia’s Defense Ministry has mishandled the crisis. They do not believe the report of the Ministry of Defense on the death and casualties of the Russian forces. This kind of mistrust was not there before. People believed that Putin has given a new direction to Russia. But now that illusion seems to be breaking. Russian citizens are worried about the future. They don’t know how long this war will last. They do not even know whether Russia will be successful in the war or not. Russia’s economic isolation from the West would last for at least a decade. The Russian elite and middle class are concerned that economic isolation from the West will affect their income, employment, education and lifestyle.
They are also worried that due to isolation, Russia will have to make compromises and concessions with countries like China and India. This is a troublesome situation for the people. People do not want to raise these issues during the ongoing war with Ukraine, but these concerns are widespread among the people there. When Prigozhin questioned the purpose of the war, there was no honest answer from the Kremlin. People are not even sure about the number of dead and casualties in the war. But experts believe that more than one lakh soldiers have been killed. This is the biggest tragedy in Russia after World War II. Russia was not prepared for such damage. This rebellion will have a direct impact on the ongoing war in Ukraine. When the objectives of war are questioned by the belligerent forces, the commitment of the soldiers also comes under question.
It has to be asked whether the soldiers are sacrificing their lives for those of the ruling class who want to remain in power and fight each other to protect their privileges. Soldiers dedicate their lives to the nation, not to the ruling class. Furthermore, the absence of Wagner fighters would blunt the violent element in the army. Russia will be in a weak position during future talks. Western country will use Wagner forces against Putin’s regime. On the other hand, a rift in the Russian army will boost the morale of the Ukrainian army.
Their counter-attack will get a new momentum and they will use this as a right opportunity to intensify their struggle. Ukraine’s retaliatory attack was not successful and questions were raised about its legitimacy. But, now the West will support Ukraine with more weapons and hence the war is likely to drag on. It should be noted that Russia is a nuclear nation and it will not accept any insult lightly. This is a dangerous situation for the world.
This development will have both direct and indirect impact on Russia’s relations with India. Russia will not be in a position to supply arms in the way it used to do earlier. It cannot continuously supply oil to India at a subsidized price. Russia’s dependence on China will increase manifold and this is not a favorable situation for India. It is also possible that Putin may avoid coming to India during the G-20 summit. All this does not bode well for India-Russia relations. In such a situation, India should actively show stability in Russia. Putin is still popular in Russia, but his image has been tarnished. Prigozhin has been sidelined and is unlikely to return to Russia in the near future. But, a new conservative and liberal force is gaining popularity. There are also fears that Putin’s regime may become more repressive to contain these forces. This is not a good sign for the Russian people and the world.
(These are the personal views of the author)
