The College of Science and Engineering at Hamad Bin Khalifa University and Qatar Shell hosted a joint session examining the energy future and potential climate in a world where security is a major concern.
View the latest Shell Energy Security scenarios in Qatar for how the world might evolve after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Speaking at the event was one of Shell’s leading thought leaders exploring potential transformations for the future.
David Hoon, Shell’s Senior Adviser on Climate Change, said: “Arab countries, including Qatar, play a vital role in the energy transition. In both of Shell’s new scenarios, there is a fundamental shift to solar power in meeting energy demand, however, fossil fuels will still dominate. Until 2060, oil and gas will still dominate domestic energy needs. In the Sky 2050 scenario, we will see major Arab countries investing heavily in carbon capture and storage.
Dr. Ahmed Sami Abu Sheikha, Assistant Professor in the College of Science and Engineering at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, added, “It was an honor to host Qatar Shell to discuss the latest energy security scenarios, as this is in line with Hamad Bin Khalifa University’s full commitment to working with partners in the energy sector to strengthen the links between educational, societal and economic needs. The future scenarios presented many possibilities that can be considered and will help our efforts to support the energy policies and initiatives of the country.”
The first scenario, called the Archipelago, follows the possibility that today’s pressures will continue into the end of the century. The national interest remains fundamental and renewables are seen primarily as a way to improve energy security. By 2100, net zero emissions are on the horizon, but the world has fallen short of the Paris Agreement target. This scenario is “exploratory”: it seeks to plot a course from where the world stood in 2022.
The second scenario, called Sky 2050, shows how quickly the world must move to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement. Global climate security becomes the main concern. Countries are racing to switch to cleaner energy and a competitive landscape of technology, minerals and manufacturing capacity is emerging. Competition drives rapid change and the world reaches net-zero emissions in 2050. This scenario is “normative” and very difficult: it sets goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 and limiting warming to less than 1.5°C by 2100, then works again on the realities of 2022 to explore how to reach these endpoints.
Shell has been developing possible futures since the early 1970’s. It helps academics, governments, and companies explore ways forward and make better decisions.
Shell scenarios are informed by data, generated using models and contain insights from leading experts in relevant fields. Ultimately, for all readers, the scenarios are meant to help make better decisions. They (scenarios) broaden minds, broaden horizons, and discover assumptions.
