Harsh V Pant
Relations between America and China have been going bad for the last several years. Especially since the US had waged a trade war against China during the tenure of former President Donald Trump. Trump had made China a major issue in his election campaign. He projected China as an economic and strategic rival. After that, both Republican and Democrat parties agreed that China would be the biggest threat to America in the coming years.
Earlier, America used to consider China as a strategic threat, but from the economic point of view, it used to see China as an opportunity. There was a change in that and America started seeing China as a challenge even economically. This change in America’s attitude towards China continued even further. Joe Biden attacked China in his election campaign more aggressively than Trump. When America’s national security policy and other defense policies came after Biden came to power, China was projected as a strategic rival in all of them.
Right now, due to the Ukraine war, Russia has become a cause of trouble for America. Despite this, strategists see Russia as a short-term challenge for the US, because Russia cannot become an economic challenge in the way that China can become. So the Biden administration continued its aggression towards China and promoted cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, economic and technical sanctions were imposed against China. Amidst all this, the attitude of China had also become very aggressive. Tension increased between America and China regarding Taiwan. This issue, which has been heated since the time of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, has not cooled down yet. That is, America tried to surround China on many issues and China also retaliated.
Thus the tension created between the two big powers is still intact. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was scheduled to visit China in February this year as well, but the trip was postponed over the issue of a spy balloon. Blinken has now visited China after four months. This step is an attempt to stabilize the relations between the two countries so that the competition does not escalate towards conflict. In his statement after the tour, Blinken has talked about continuing the dialogue between the two countries and keeping the path of dialogue open. He also met Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit. The statement issued by Xi after this is more positive than that of America. Actually, Xi wants his relations with America to improve because China’s economic condition is bad and America has succeeded in mobilizing its allies against China.
As far as India is concerned, India keeps a close watch on Sino-US relations. But, Indo-US relations have become very strong now, and the tension with China has further strengthened it. The way China became aggressive in India, America and the Indo-Pacific region, after that the relations between America and India gained more momentum. But, at this time the relations between India and America are also very strong in themselves. India and America came closer in the decades after the Cold War, but a situation of mistrust remained between the two. To end that mistrust, the governments of both India and America have made efforts. George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and now Joe Biden – the last four Presidents of America belong to different parties and different ideologies.
Here in India too, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh or Narendra Modi – they have also been leaders of different parties and different ideologies. But in spite of this, there was no doubt about the policy of increasing relations with America in the governments of both the countries. Right now a lot of issues related to defense and technology are being discussed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to America. It is being told that there can be major agreements between the two countries in these areas. But, these issues used to be very sensitive issues at one time, regarding which there was a difference of opinion between the two countries.
India always felt that America does not want to share good technology with it and does not want to cooperate by sharing technology in the development of defense products. But today India has been successful in convincing America on all those issues that if there is cooperation between the two countries, not only India but America will also be benefited. I hope that the concrete results of this change will be seen in this visit of Prime Minister Modi as well and will be seen in the coming times as well. Relations between India and America today are not only bilateral, both the countries are appearing together on many global forums as well. China also keeps a close watch on this global identity of India and America.
There is a fear in the mind of China that if India-America remains close, then there may be a challenge for China strategically. He will be worried that there will be a defense partnership between India and America and both countries can work together in the Asia-Pacific region as well, which can increase China’s problems. The way China has been trying to put pressure on India, India has taken a bite out of it by intensifying its relations with America. In such a situation, China also has to think from a strategic point of view what it wants. The result of this is that he is trying to improve his relations with America. He knows that if this does not happen, his problems may increase, because right now America is in such a position that it can create such a security structure in the Indo-Pacific region with allies like Japan, South Korea and Australia and close countries like India. Can prepare which can become a problem for China.
(The author is vice-chairman of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi)
(based on conversation)
