-Seema Javed-
It rains for four months in the country and the stage has started to prepare for it. On May 19, the southwest monsoon has knocked in the southeast Bay of Bengal. From there it has turned towards Nicobar Islands and South Andaman Sea.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had already confirmed the highest probability of normal monsoon this year. Although scientists have already said that climate change will affect the Indian monsoon. Significantly, Dr. Roxy Mathew of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune does not agree with this forecast of the Meteorological Department. According to him, this announcement is completely irrational. There has been less rainfall during the last 66 years. There has been an increase in incidents like sudden heavy rains and floods. But the total rainy days are decreasing.
In fact, normal monsoon means regular rains in four rainy months and not heavy rains for one month and only drizzling for the remaining three months. In such a situation, even though the level of rainfall is normal, this pattern is not normal, nor does it benefit the farmers. On the contrary, due to heavy rain earlier, the crop gets damaged and later due to lack of rain, it dries up.
It is known that the effect of El Nino has increased worldwide, due to which 2023 is likely to be one of the four hottest years. With the year 2022 predicted to be 1.15°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, India’s temperature rise trend is slightly lower than the global average. According to the Meteorological Department, due to global warming, the frequency and duration of heatwaves have increased by about 2.5 days in the summer areas of the country in the last 30 years. While the duration and frequency of cold wave has decreased during this period. Simply put, the heat is increasing year by year. The increasing effect of climate change is increasing the uncertainty in the weather around the world and India is no exception to it. The weather pattern is constantly changing.
At present, the onset of monsoon is slightly delayed in Kerala. The arrival of monsoon along the coast of Kerala marks the beginning of the rainy season. The Meteorological Department (IMD) believes that the monsoon will reach Kerala on 4 June. Monsoon reached Kerala on May 29 last year. Due to the late arrival of monsoon in Kerala, the rainy season will start late in other parts of the country as well.
In these circumstances lakhs of small farmers are raising their eyes towards the sky, their daily bread (crop) depends on the monsoon every year. Farmers who grew mustard in rabi are now sowing cotton as harvesting of rabi wheat was delayed due to rain. Unseasonal rains and hailstorm had destroyed the standing wheat crop, delaying harvesting. Many farmers claim that the weather in the past few years has been largely unpredictable and cotton cultivation has also become risky.
(The author is an environmentalist)
