One year in the next five years will almost certainly be the warmest, and there is a strong possibility that one year will warm by 1.5°C over the same period. Global warming will cross the limit. This estimate has been expressed in a new report of the World Meteorological Organization.
Urgent need to “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions
The ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update’ report warns that if humans fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to “net zero”, this decade will see worse heat records. What will be the outlook for the next five years after this cautionary report? While the possible El Nino will take the global temperature to a record level. If the global average temperature exceeds the limit of 1.5 °C in any one of the next five years, should it be considered that the Paris Agreement has already failed. No, but it is a stark reminder of what lies ahead if we fail to achieve ‘net zero’ soon.
In the next five years, there will be one year when record breaking heat will be recorded.
It has been said in the report that there is a 98 percent chance that there will be a year in the next five years when record-breaking heat will be recorded. At the same time, there is a 66 percent chance that one year in the next five years will cross the limit of 1.5 ° C global warming. There is also a 32 per cent chance that the average temperature will exceed the 1.5°C limit in the next five years. The probability of a temperature increase temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C has steadily increased since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, the probability was 10 percent.
Temperature rising 0.2°C per decade
Human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have already raised the global average temperature by more than 1 °C since the end of the 19th century. According to the report, the average global temperature for the year 2022 was about 1.15°C higher than the 1850-1900 average, despite the cooling effect of La-Nina conditions. The temperature is now rising by about 0.2°C per decade.
El-Nino is the main reason for rising temperature
We are warming the world at such a rapid pace that global and local heat records are being created. Temperatures are reaching unprecedented high levels due to human impacts on the climate. The possibility of the weather phenomenon ‘El-Nino’ can become the reason for the increase in temperature. The current record global average temperature was set in 2016. A major El Niño event earlier that year raised global average temperatures.
What is ‘El-Nino’?
El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal. This increased temperature causes a change in the atmospheric pattern. Because of this, the monsoon cycle weakens in the Indian peninsula, due to which the rainfall is also less. El Nino conditions have started forming in the Pacific Ocean region and it is likely to intensify in June and July. This could be the first significant El Nino event since 2016.
WMO’s warning: The danger of increasing drought is looming around the world including India, El Nino may return in July
