The document says the war is likely to be long-lasting. But it describes how each “unforeseen” scenario could potentially result in an escalation in Ukraine, a negotiated end to the conflict, or have no substantial impact on the trajectory of the war.
The scenarios document is a fairly typical product created by intelligence agencies. It is designed to help military officers, policy makers, or legislators think through the possible outcomes of important events as they evaluate their options.
The document is marked “RELIDO”, indicating that the decision to release the information – for example to foreign partners – rests with certain high-ranking officials. It is dated February 24 and labeled “one year,” suggesting that the analysis was conducted one year after the invasion began.
One of four hypothetical scenarios explains what could happen if Ukraine strikes the Kremlin. A wide range of potential implications is identified. The event could lead to an escalation, with Putin responding to public outcry by launching a large-scale military mobilization and considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Or, the public’s fears might lead him to negotiate a settlement of the war.
The Biden administration has been particularly concerned about a possible Ukrainian attack on Moscow, as it could prompt a dramatic escalation from Russia. The dangers of such an attack from Ukraine are one of the reasons why the United States has been reluctant to provide longer-range missiles to Kiev.
US officials declined to say whether the document was genuine, but did not dispute its authenticity. The document is similar to others produced by the Pentagon’s Joint Chiefs of Staff that officials have acknowledged are real.
US officials have also warned that the leaked documents are dated and in many cases do not represent the current assessments of various intelligence agencies.
A second top secret document obtained by The Times includes details of negotiations over Russian fuel prices in Africa.
According to the document, dated February 17, Malian authorities were at the time unhappy with fuel prices and were continuing to negotiate with the Russian Ministry of Energy and representatives of Africa Politology, an entity linked to the private military company Wagner.
This apparent price pushback comes at a time when the African fuel market has become increasingly important to Russia as Western-imposed price caps and a European Union ban on imports of Russian refined petroleum products continue to erode revenue streams available.
