The Washington Post writes that Ukraine plans to regain territory in the east of the country during the offensive and also expects the Ukrainian Armed Forces to advance south to cut off the Russian military’s access to Crimea. However, the paper said a combination of Russia’s defenses and insufficient support for Ukrainian soldiers will “likely stall progress and exacerbate losses during the offensive”.
In addition, some sources among US officials added that such forecasts were also supported by the assessment of the US National Intelligence Council, according to which it is unlikely that Ukraine will regain as much territory as it did after the autumn offensive.
For their part, senior Ukrainian officials did not dispute the American assessment, but noted that the results of the offensive will be more affected by the delay in Western arms deliveries. Also, one of the officials, contacted by The Washington Post, said that the emerging information would not prevent the counterattack, because the command could change the plan exactly a week before the start of the operation.
In early April, it emerged that the US Department of Defense was investigating the leak of secret documents detailing US and NATO plans to bolster Ukrainian armed forces ahead of a counteroffensive.
Experts said that the documents were partially redacted and that they overestimate the number of Ukrainians killed in the war and underestimate the losses of the Russian army. It is also possible that the documents were released as part of a disinformation campaign.
On April 8, The New York Times reported on a new batch of classified documents that appeared online. On April 10, the US Department of Justice launched an investigation into the incident.
