While the United States is already at war with Russia via Ukraine and willing to begin another war against China anytime by 2025, military experts are still in doubt if America’s direct involvement in Ukraine war would face the similar fate of Vietnam war or a very recent example of Afghanistan, wherefrom Americans had to practically flee by surrendering their dignity and honor to the Taliban thugs. At this state, experts are saying – there are major differences between Vietnam and Ukraine, but the ending of this war is again likely to involve the persuasion of a Ukrainian ally as much as the pressure of a Russian rivals.
While the international media is totally focused on Ukraine war, it is yet to put substantial attention to another issue – America’s war with China, which Washington policymakers are considering to begin anytime by 2025.
At this junction the biggest question is – whether United States can afford to continue two wars with two nuclear powers, which would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and lives of millions of American soldiers. Replying to this question, military analysts said, “America is global super power with massive size of military, which is equipped with most-sophisticated weapons and military hardware. Once the US begins direct war with Russia and China by using Ukraine and Taiwan as the starting points, it will certainly get direct support from its European allies including the United Kingdom. Hundreds and thousands of American and European troops can be mobilized in Ukraine and Taiwan along with sophisticated air and naval armaments, drones, submarines etcetera”.
In their opinion, “Once these two wars begin, European nations, including Britain may suffer certain degree of economic crises due to heavy defense expenditure. But this is essential for them to endure such sufferings for the sake of maintaining supremacy of the Western nations, including the US and European countries over any other country in the world”.
They also said, “Once Washington begins war with Beijing, it will naturally have India as its ally, which would participate in the war against China using its large military force, weapons and hardware. With India joining a US-China war, Beijing will be facing multiple challenges as India’s involvement will put tremendous pressure since Indian troops can easily infiltrate within Sino-Indian land and sea borders”.
Rejecting such assumptions, several analysts said, United States and its European and NATO allies have been practically fighting a direct war – if not a proxy war, against Russia in the Ukrainian front for more than a year, and until now there is no real sign of Kyiv winning the battle. In this case, America’s war with Russia and China will not bring similar fate of Vietnam war or America’s involvement in Afghanistan. Rather it will be a catastrophe for the US and its European allies. This war will wreck military capabilities or the Western countries along side massive economic challenges combined with human crisis.
Last week marked the fiftieth anniversary of America’s humiliating retreat from Vietnam by withdrawing its last troops. Since the World War II, it was the end of America’s bloodiest war, as measured by American casualties.
The retreat of the last American troop-bearing plane culminated in a sixty-day withdrawal period as specified by a peace agreement that Henry Kissinger and Le Duc Tho had negotiated and was signed in Paris in January 1973.
According to Professor Paul Pillar, who retired in 2005 from a twenty-eight-year career in the US intelligence community, in which his last position was a National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia, “Some war-ending agreements are inevitably as unpopular as they are necessary. Domestic criticism of the Vietnam policies of Kissinger and President Richard Nixon came primarily from those who contended that the United States should have pulled out of that war sooner. But criticism also came from those who believed—a belief that has lingered in a few small circles for decades—that the United States still could have achieved a successful outcome of the Vietnam War if it had stuck it out.
“This picture parallels criticisms of the Biden administration’s policies toward the war in Ukraine, with some arguing that the United States should pull back from its support for the Ukrainian war effort and others calling for an increase in that assistance. Such disagreements are partly about how the war ought to be fought, but they also are disagreements over how the war can and should end, because the arguments carry corollaries about what conditions on the battlefield will or will not produce conditions at the negotiating table conducive to reaching a peace agreement.
“Compromise agreements are the rule, and outright victory or defeat the exception, in wars that have mattered to the United States since the end of World War II. Both sides typically leave the negotiating table dissatisfied about some things, and that was true of the 1973 Paris agreement. The dissatisfactions on the US side were matched by Hanoi’s frustration in having to postpone yet again—as the Viet Minh had done when negotiating with the French in 1954—their objective of ruling over a unified Vietnam. Perhaps it was a mark of this frustration that the airbase where I was stationed was rocketed by Communist forces after the agreement was signed and ninety minutes before the cease-fire went into effect. It probably would have seemed like a waste to have carried those munitions all the way down the Ho Chi Minh Trail without getting in one last blow at the Americans.
“For some peace agreements to be reached at all, they may have to leave much to chance. No one could have predicted with precision how events would play out in a contest between North and South Vietnam with American forces gone. Nixon and Kissinger expected that South Vietnam would be unable to stand indefinitely but would stand long enough for Americans to largely forget about Vietnam and move on to other issues. This was the concept of a “decent interval,” which deserves criticism insofar as the strategy was motivated by domestic political considerations. Nonetheless, the leaving of much of the immediate future of South Vietnam to chance probably was essential in closing the negotiating gap between Washington and Hanoi and reaching any agreement at all”.
He further said, “Today’s policy questions regarding the war in Ukraine involve correspondingly delicate and difficult questions about the relationship between Washington and Kyiv and how their interests diverge. There are major differences, of course, between that war and the one in Vietnam, including not only that the United States has not directly involved its own troops but also that Ukraine is led by a legitimate government with much popular support and has been the victim of naked international aggression, rather than the legacy of a partial decolonization. But the ending of this war is again likely to involve the persuasion of a Ukrainian ally as much as the pressure of a Russian adversary”.
America’s war in Ukraine
According to media reports, more than forty percent of the American and European aid including cash sent to Ukraine gets vapored immediately after entering the Ukrainian territory. Organized crime rackets and transnational smuggling groups are selling Western weapons to terrorist and jihadist outfits, while a segment of these weapons is diverted to Western black markets. Meaning, those mighty elements inside Ukraine are rather busy in making quick bucks instead of using those foreign weapons and military hardware against Russian troops. Under such circumstance, the only viable option for Washington and its Western allies is to send their own troops in Ukraine to join the battle, though there is no guarantee that it would also face the same fate of Vietnam or Afghanistan wars.
We need to remember – during the Vietnam War, heroic Vietnamese populace fought against Americans thus giving an extremely bitter taste to the American forces and taught them a lesson of ultimate consequence of invading a foreign country. But Americans did not learn any lesson from it. Instead they have repeated it in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and now in Ukraine.
In my opinion, Americans and their Western allies can never win their battle against Russia, while the final fate of Ukraine war will be extremely disastrous to the warmonger Western leaders and particularly to Ukrainian people though they are victims of international conspiracy. Still, key policymakers in Pentagon are planning another war with China by 2025, without even thinking the consequence. They do not realize, once America and its allies strike China, it will be responded by China’s allies such as Russian and even the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). This war not only will break the false pride of America and its Western allies, it will also cause serious damage to America’s marionettes in Japan, South Korea and of course Taiwan. Simple math here is – whether key policymakers in Washington and other Western capitals will admit or not – their days of supremacy is over.
