In Israel on March 11, the largest rallies in the history of the country were held. More than 500 thousand people took to the streets of Haifa, Jerusalem, Ashkelon and other large cities, and about 200 thousand demonstrators gathered in Tel Aviv. Mass protests have been going on for the third month since the beginning of January 2023 and periodically escalate into clashes with the police. The main reason for the dissatisfaction of citizens was the start of consideration by the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, elected in December 2022, of a bill to change the judiciary. During the reform, it is planned to abolish the right of the Supreme Court of Israel (High Court) to block laws adopted by the Knesset.
Dmitry Maryasis, Leading Researcher, Department of Israel and Jewish Communities, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences:
“The current situation is reminiscent of 2005, when Israel withdrew its troops from the Gaza Strip. For almost 18 years, I have not seen civil tension of such a level – precisely from an emotional point of view. Indeed, people come out every Saturday in all large and small cities of the country, during the week there are also various protests of various sizes, for example, car races. Businessmen say that they will withdraw their capital.
What can this lead to? On the one hand, it seems that in a country with a political culture like Israel’s, the government should have resigned or made serious compromises on the reform that sparked the mass demonstrations. But the government is behaving, in my opinion, in a rather strange way. It shows that it is not ready to go for it. Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be calm. At the same time, it sometimes seems that his only desire is to remain in power. However, the level of tension in society is such that much more violent acts of disobedience can begin in Israel, which will be on or even beyond the law. After all, now no one is hitting a shop window, no one is throwing tires.
Boris Dolgov, Leading Researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences:
“Mass protests in Israel are an almost unprecedented phenomenon in the modern history of this country. Undoubtedly, they will affect the further actions of the state leadership. It is quite possible that Netanyahu will make some kind of compromise, to meet the demands of the protesters. This scenario seems to me the most likely. In addition, I think that Netanyahu will still remain in power.
Judicial reform is a limitation of the independence of judges, greater control over the judiciary by the state, and in particular by the president and prime minister, and this is the main point. The most important thing, of course, is that the independence of judges still needs to be confirmed. But there are many nuances and already specific points on which an agreement can be reached.”
Expert on Israel and the Middle East Alexander Kargin:
“In the next two to three weeks, the greatest tension is expected. Currently, protesters against judicial reform are actively instigated by opposition politicians. I admit that pogroms will begin, maybe even some local clashes with the police. But at the same time, the government, apparently, will not back down, and this judicial reform will be brought to an end, but in some kind of compromise version.
On Thursday, the opposition will be able to bring 200,000-300,000 people to the streets for a government strike, but this will not fundamentally change the situation. It must be understood that Israeli society is split. There are opponents of judicial reform actively expressing their opinion, but there is a large mass of people who support this reform. These are mostly conservative Israelis.”
Orientalist and political scientist Vyacheslav Matuzov:
“I don’t think that protests and street performances will find so much support among the general population of Israel. Therefore, it is unlikely that even 500 thousand protesters can achieve any specific political goals, for example, remove one leader and bring another to power.
The former government of Israel under the leadership of Yair Lapid differed from the current one in its parameters. It consisted of partners whose political views conflicted with each other’s interests. Netanyahu has a more consolidated audience.”
