By the last days of February 2023, the federal budget was executed with a deficit of almost 4 trillion rubles. At the same time, the volume of income amounted to 1.4 trillion, expenses – 5.4 trillion, follows from the data of the state portal “Electronic Budget”, which were analyzed by Izvestia.

At the same time, the Ministry of Finance predicts a shortage of 2.9 trillion, or 2% of GDP, by the end of this year. Thus, the deficit at the end of the month exceeds the annual plan by 1.1 trillion.

According to the portal’s operational data, the bulk of spending in January-February 2023 fell on social policy (1.07 trillion), the national economy (0.4 trillion) and defense (0.3 trillion).

The Ministry of Finance does not expect changes in the deficit indicators for the year, Izvestia was told in the press service of the department. In connection with the payment of the single tax payment (STP) on February 28, the transfer and distribution of funds will be made in the first days of March, so the data for February will appear on the 6-7th, they said.

The increase in the deficit at the beginning of the year is primarily due to the drawdown in oil and gas revenues due to the low average price of Urals, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at FG Finam. Other factors include accelerated VAT refunds and overpayments of income tax in past periods, as well as advance financing of government contracts, the expert listed.

At the same time, large government spending benefits GDP, because these costs are invested in production, said Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Market Research.