US President Joe Biden and his NATO allies are frantically trying to expand the Ukraine war into other East European countries, while taking the risk of a WWIII or nuclear war, once Volodymyr Zelensky and his neo-Nazi cronies shot a long-range ICBM fitted with nuclear warhead targeting Moscow. Vietnamese professor and novelist Viet Thanh Nguyen once said, “All wars are fought twice, the first on the battlefield and the second in memory”. For Ukrainians, memory and consequences of this war shall be extremely devastating as they will require billions of dollars for rebuilding the country, while they will have to refund the amount US and its NATO allies currently are giving as “aide” with exorbitant amount of profit. Meaning, Ukrainians will ultimately become nation burdened with tremendous debts to Zelensky’s current masters in the West.
Meantime, it is essential to understand, if the NATO nations will ultimately succeed in maintaining unity or it will fall apart as it is becoming evidently clear that this transatlantic alliance has to some extent has become lapdog of the United States.
French president Emanuele Macron warned that NATO was “becoming brain-dead”. For many years, different NATO members blasted Germany and Italy for being too Russia-friendly, with some calling the former a “shaky alliance partner” and a “freeloader.” High levels of friction between Greece and Turkey only further exacerbated intra-NATO tensions.
Throughout the past year, countries in the Western alliance have provided Kyiv with military, economic, and humanitarian support to the tune of US$80 billion, with the vast majority coming from the United States and UK. Although the arms deliveries to Ukraine have not been as much as some NATO countries – such as Poland and the Baltic states—would have liked, the alliance has met most of Kiev’s demands.
The European Union’s unprecedented sanctions packages on Russia, the “revolution” in Germany’s defense funding and energy policy, Italy’s “divorce” from Russia, Turkey’s drone deliveries to Kyiv, and other significant actions demonstrated NATO’s determination to reach its highest level of cohesion in the new-Cold War period. Yes, this is the resurgence of the Cold War, where Western nations are continuous showing signs of confrontation with Russia, while the West has succeeded in defeating Moscow in the soft war – cyber and media war, although there is no sign of Russia’s real willingness of at least showing its capabilities of having an equal presence in the cyber and media sectors.
Meanwhile, Hungary has been accused of obstructing the NATO alliance’s unity to serve Budapest’s interests in maintaining positive bilateral relations with Moscow. In addition to ideational synergies between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin’s philosophies, Hungary is greatly dependent on Russian gas and oil, which helps explain Budapest’s quest for foreign policy balance as a beneficiary of both EU subsidies and hydrocarbons from Russia. Nuclear energy, banking, and tourism are other domains that make Russia important to Hungary, which for years has been the most Moscow-friendly EU member.
Turkey’s decision not to impose sanctions on Moscow while significantly increasing its bilateral trade with Russia further illustrates how not all members of NATO have been on the same page vis-à-vis the Ukraine War.
Then there is the debate over Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, which has fueled significant tension between Ankara and various Western capitals. From the perspective of the United States and most European governments, these two Nordic countries joining NATO would greatly benefit the alliance. According to analysts, Russia would be forced to deploy a very significant number of troops on its northern flank to protect the strategic important harbor of Murmansk and the Kola peninsula with their many navy bases from an eventual NATO attack in the case of a Russian military actions in Central Europe.
Activists and protestors in the United States, UK, Italy, the Czech Republic, and other NATO countries, concerned about potential nuclear war and exhausted with war fatigue amid a period of global energy crises and inflation, have held demonstrations calling for a halt to arms shipments to Ukraine. Given that these countries are democracies, politicians who share these attitudes could come to power in the near future—a factor that Kiev cannot ignore.
US domestic politics may ultimately end up determining NATO unity. In the words of Andrew A. Michta, the dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, “Should the United States cut Ukraine off, the country could not sustain its defense against Russia for long, regardless of what European NATO members and other supporters of Ukraine would do”. Given that a Republican might enter the Oval Office in January 2025 and decrease Washington’s support for Ukraine (or at least attach many more strings to it), Ukraine has much at stake in the 2024 US election. “West European solidarity with the United States has been partly due to the fact that America has a Democratic administration”, explained Lieven. “If the Republicans—and especially of course Donald Trump—win in November 2024, this could lead to a weakening of the Transatlantic bond and more independent action by France and Germany”.
Germany and Italy will also test NATO’s impermeability. Berlin and Rome have shown a certain level of hesitancy in providing Ukraine with full-scale support. Germany recently delayed equipping Ukraine with Leopard 2 battle tanks, sending NATO allies—many of which were bound to Berlin’s consent to send their German-produced tanks to Kiev—into a frenzy.
Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, on the other hand, is steadfast in sending weapons to Kiev. But members of her coalition, such as Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, challenge Meloni’s position daily. This, and the fact that less than 40 percent of Italians support supplying Ukraine with weapons, may very well force Giorgia Meloni to backtrack her support soon.
Wow this was one of your worst and one-eyed articles ever. The writer is either a Russian troll or seriously demented.