How the fall of the ruble will save the Russian budget


February 14, 2023, 18:14 – BLiTZ – News In the current economic situation, we can confidently predict that the Russian currency will continue to fall. By summer, the exchange rate may reach 85 rubles per dollar, economist Vladislav Zhukovsky believes. In an interview with the BLiTZ, he explained why the devaluation of the ruble is one of the effective solutions to the problem of the budget deficit and how to make savings safer.

“Taking into account what a hole is being formed in the budget, an exchange rate of about 100 rubles per dollar is needed to balance the budget. Roughly speaking, a barrel of oil would cost at least 5,000 rubles per barrel. The budget stipulated that a barrel of oil costs $70, respectively, the ruble exchange rate against the dollar is 68-69. Accordingly, in order to now reach these budget parameters with an average oil price of $49, the exchange rate should be about 100 rubles per dollar, ”the economist calculated.

Obviously, the government will not go for such a rapid fall in the value of the ruble, so as not to cause social discontent. Nevertheless, the dollar rate will grow steadily, the specialist is convinced.

“On the eve of the election of the mayor of Moscow, the regions elect governors, then the presidential election. Accordingly, the authorities will try to avoid a shock devaluation. But about 82-85 rubles per dollar by the summer is quite expected, ”Vladislav Zhukovsky gave a forecast.

The economist recalled that one of the options for solving the problem of the budget deficit would be the devaluation of the ruble. This is dictated by the raw materials export economy: the lion’s share of the budget consists of revenues from the sale of raw materials.

“Exporters of oil, gas, coal, fertilizers, metals are already sounding the alarm, they say they need a course. They need at least 90-100 rubles per dollar there, otherwise it is not profitable for us to trade. Now we are actually trading at a loss, the costs have increased. That is why I believe that the devaluation of the ruble is inevitable, ”the specialist concluded.

Ordinary Russians who want to make long-term savings for a rainy day need to proceed from the current situation. That is, to keep funds in foreign currency, but not in a bank and not on a deposit, Vladislav Zhukovsky is convinced.

Earlier, the economist revealed the fate of the frozen Russian savings and explained why the West simply will not find most of the assets.


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