Russian president Vladimir Putin is gradually becoming weaker while a shadow government at Kremlin’s backyard is silently plotting coup with the goal of liberating Russia from the “evil grips of a tyrant”. While according to media reports, Belarus’ opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, is plotting to form an alliance with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to try to hamper any hopes that Russia may have of territorial expansion beyond Ukraine and further into Europe, world media actually is in absolute dark about what really is going to happen within the span of next few months.
Meanwhile, according to media reports, Belarussian leaders are feeling worries as they believe, Russian are looking at them in the same light as they look at Ukraine.
Concerns have been mounting in European countries that Vladimir Putin is interested in invading countries beyond just Ukraine for months now. Some fears have grown that Putin is interested in attacking the Baltics, Poland, or even the Unite Kingdom and the United States. And an incursion or takeover in Belarus, in theory, could give Putin easier access to Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.
It was reported in the Polish media that Russian oligarchs are suddenly showing interest in investment hugely in several mega projects in the country, although it is not clear if such investments has anything connected to Putin’s ambition of expanding his annexation plan up to Poland.
Valery Kavaleuski, a foreign affairs representative for the Belarusian opposition leader told The Daily Beast, “When you look at the map, you see that these are basically the most important countries on the way from Russia to Western Europe. Democratic Belarus and Ukraine should be working closely to resolve the “grave threat to our statehood in both countries”.
It’s not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin has designs over Belarus in the near term. Belarus’ relationship with Russia is complex – the US State Department assessed early this year that it’s not clear where the power of the Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, ends, and where Putin’s power begins. Moscow and Minsk have established what they call a “union state”, in which each year the two countries fuse their banking, military, and other sectors closer and closer together.
Just this year, Lukashenko has allowed Russia to barrel in and use Belarus as a launching ground for attacks on Ukraine, including the failed effort to capture Kyiv early in the war.
In recent weeks, Belarus and Russia have been working on launching a joint military grouping and are conducting live fire exercises in Belarus. Russia is currently sending approximately 9,000 troops and hundreds of armored vehicles into Belarus in preparation for potential deployment, just as Russia faces mounting losses in Ukraine, Belarusian defense officials said.
But Tsikhanouskaya, who ran for president in 2020 against Lukashenko and is recognized around the globe as the legitimate representative of the Belarusian people, is reading between the lines that Lukashenko is not an equal partner to Putin and has almost entirely ceded his power to Moscow. Her judgment is that now is the time to turn a new page with an eye to the future—one where Lukashenko is not necessarily in power.
While Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko enjoy cordial relations, Belarus leaders such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya are looking for forming an alliance with anti-Kremlin nations in Europe and beyond, while Belarus leaders are in favor of establishing deeper connections with numerous anti-Moscow factors in Ukraine, including Azov Battalion. There is already rumor about “plenty” of Russian military officers and intelligence operatives secretly maintaining liaison with anti-Putin forces both inside and outside Russia. Most importantly, there were al least two coups attempt ever-since Putin began war against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, a section of Russian diplomats deployed in foreign countries are already discouraging media from extending support to Vladimir Putin. This particular case proves – there already is a shadow government at the backyard of Kremlin, which is gradually becoming powerful, and may finally succeed in ousting Putin through a coup d’etat.
