In Estonia, the ruling coalition collapsed, which, according to local nationalists, was based on the pro-Russian Center Party. They deny any connection with Moscow. About what kind of political future awaits the Baltic republic – in the material of RIA Novosti. Writes Mikhail Katkov
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who heads the Reform Party, said she could no longer work in alliance with the Center Party, which is suspected of being pro-Russian. In the context of security problems in Europe, this is unacceptable, the head of government is sure. At her request, President Alar Karis dismissed representatives of the centrists – the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Public Administration, the Ministry of Ecology and the Ministry of Culture. At the same time, despite the collapse of the coalition, the prime minister herself did not leave. First, she wants to complete negotiations on a new parliamentary union.
The partial resignation of the government does not bother the president. He, like Kallas, is convinced that Tallinn, together with its partners in NATO and the European Union, is experiencing the worst crisis in decades. And he hopes that the deputies will quickly come to an agreement – this will help lead Estonia out of troubled times.
For the first time, serious problems in intra-coalition relations were discussed in mid-May – then, against the wishes of the reformists, a bill was passed through parliament to increase social benefits for children. Kallas stated that there was no money for this, and tried to push through a law on the translation of primary education into Estonian. But the centrists, who traditionally rely on the Russian-speaking electorate, turned it around, enlisting the support of the far-right Conservative People’s Party (EKRE).
The outcome of the vote did not come as a surprise: a quarter of Estonian citizens are Russian-speaking. However, Kallas reported that the Center Party was undermining the value of the Estonian language, around which the nation must rally to defend independence. In this regard, the reformists will try to unite with the Social Democratic Party and the national conservative Fatherland. If everything works out, together they will gain 57 votes against 44 from the opposition – the centrists and EKRE.
However, Jüri Ratas, Speaker of the Parliament and Chairman of the Center Party, is not going to give up. He plans to recreate the alliance with EKRE and Fatherland, which lasted from 2019 to 2021. According to Ratas, now we need to think not only about the Ukrainian crisis, but also about the economic problems of Estonia. Due to anti-Russian sanctions, in three to four months people will have nothing to pay for gas and electricity.
The speaker was supported by EKRE Chairman Martin Helme. In his opinion, the reformists are deliberately fanning military hysteria in order to raise the popularity of the prime minister. “You are given two options: either you praise Kallas, or you are a Kremlin agent and a Putinist. I refuse to play any role in this scenario,” Helme announced.
The “countrymen”, on whom everything now depends, have not yet decided. But their honorary chairman, Mart Laar, refused to support an alliance with the centrists, as he considered Ratas’s party too pro-Russian.
In January 2021, the police accused the Secretary General of the Center Party Mikhail Korb and the adviser to the Minister of Finance Kersti Kracht (represents EKRE) of corruption. According to investigators, they made a deal with an entrepreneur to transfer one million euros to the centrists’ election fund. In return, after the municipal elections, they promised preferences in concluding government contracts. Both retired, and the criminal case is still under investigation.
The day after the scandal, a referendum was to be discussed in parliament on whether only the union of a man and a woman could be considered marriage. The initiators of the plebiscite were EKRE deputies, who agreed to a coalition with the centrists on the condition that they support them on the family issue. At the same time, reformists and social democrats opposed it.
Disputes around the referendum split the society. When it became known that representatives of the ruling coalition were suspected of corruption, the opposition forced the resignation of the government and the termination of preparations for the vote. But after the success achieved, it turned out that the Reform Party again had no one to unite with, and the cabinet of ministers was formed based on the centrists.
Experts agree that the coalition that broke up in June 2022 was doomed from the first days of its existence. If the reformists advocate the development of a market economy, Estonian nationalism and the fight against Russia, then the centrists call themselves social democrats, speak of supporting the Russian-speaking population and do not want to conflict with Moscow.
However, over the past few years, the Center Party, which Estonian radicals call pro-Russian, has become more and more Western, political analyst Andrei Starikov notes. “Even before 2019, its leaders began to apologize for the cooperation agreement with United Russia, defended the rights of Russians less, and so on,” he explains. “For a while, this made the party not so toxic for nationalists and it ceased to be bogey, against which the rest are united. But in parallel, their traditional voters gradually turned away from the centrists.
Politicians exchanged the trust of supporters for the right to be in a coalition government. For several years they were at the head of the state, and then their rating crept down. In May, Estonian sociologists from Kantar Emor reported that only 16 percent of voters were ready to vote for the centrists, and 33 percent for the reformists. In 2019, the parties scored 24.8 and 27.7 percent, respectively. The electorate shrank for many reasons: some became disillusioned with corruption scandals, others did not understand coalition preferences and trade in principles, and others distanced themselves after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine.
According to Starikov, the leaders of other parliamentary parties believe that the centrists have exhausted their resources. Therefore, it is more profitable for them to agree on a new composition of the government with the Reform Party, and not with the “lame duck”, which will now be blamed for all the troubles – they did not condemn Russia loudly enough, interfered with helping Ukraine, divided the Estonians.
Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy head of the Institute of CIS Countries, believes that no matter what the next composition of the cabinet of ministers is, Tallinn’s policy towards Moscow will not change. “Estonians are unanimous here. Of course, we would like someone to swim against the current. However, there are no such people,” the expert argues. crisis period.”
Meanwhile, Kaja Kallas is negotiating the deployment of a command structure at the level of a NATO division in Estonia and an increase in the alliance’s military contingent in the republic. The British authorities have already agreed to help. The opinion of the Russians is not going to be asked, and the party that was supposed to represent their interests is now not popular even with its own electorate.
