As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the political atmosphere in the United States is charged with anticipation and uncertainty. With the unexpected withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the race, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the Democratic frontrunner. This situation evokes memories of the 2016 election, where Donald Trump triumphed over Hillary Clinton. However, the focus extends beyond the electoral contest; it is crucial to examine how the election’s outcome could impact the ongoing Ukraine war and broader geopolitical dynamics.
Kamala Harris has consistently supported President Biden’s policies on Ukraine, signaling a commitment to continuity. At the recent Summit on Peace in Ukraine in Switzerland, Harris announced a substantial aid package of $1.5 billion, aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s energy sector. This assistance, provided through the US Agency for International Development and the Department of State, underscores her dedication to maintaining robust support for Ukraine. A Harris victory would likely mean the continuation of Biden’s policy, with sustained military and financial aid to Ukraine and a firm stance against Russian aggression.
The Kremlin’s response to Harris’ candidacy has been cautious. A Kremlin spokesperson commented that Harris “had made no discernible contribution to relations with Moscow beyond some unfriendly rhetoric.” This tepid reaction suggests that Russia does not anticipate a significant shift in US-Russia relations under a Harris administration, reinforcing the notion of policy continuity.
Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate, presents a starkly different approach. In a recent phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump reiterated his intention to “end the war.” His rhetoric has raised concerns among European allies, given his past praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin and reluctance to criticize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. France 24 reported that Trump’s stance on NATO and his dovish attitude towards Russia have alarmed Ukraine’s allies, who fear a shift away from the current support framework.
Trump’s foreign policy bears similarities to the positions of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is considered the Kremlin’s closest ally within the European Union. Orban has frequently blocked EU efforts to increase support for Ukraine and has sought to mitigate sanctions on Russia. In early July, Orban visited Ukraine for the first time since the war began, meeting with Zelensky. Shortly after, he held discussions with Putin, indicating his willingness to engage with Russia directly. Orban’s subsequent meeting with Trump highlighted their shared vision of achieving peace through negotiations rather than continued conflict.
The potential outcomes of the US presidential election have significant implications for global geopolitics. Harris’ alignment with Biden’s policies suggests that a Democratic victory would maintain the status quo. This includes sustained support for Ukraine, a strong NATO, and continued diplomatic pressure on Russia. Harris’ commitment to NATO was evident at the Munich Security Conference in 2022, where she reaffirmed America’s “unwavering commitment to NATO” and the mutual defense clause enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
Trump, on the other hand, has been critical of NATO allies for not meeting their defense spending commitments. While his campaign’s national security team has not explicitly outlined a new NATO strategy, experts speculate that a second Trump term could see a shift in the US’s role within the alliance. Politico reported that Trump might maintain the US’s nuclear umbrella over Europe but transfer more defense responsibilities to European nations. This could result in a two-tier NATO system, where only countries meeting the 2 percent GDP defense spending criteria would receive full US support.
The outcome of the 2024 election will significantly influence US relations with its allies and the future of NATO. Harris’ presidency would likely reinforce NATO’s unity and bolster collective defense initiatives. Reuters highlighted Harris’ “tougher tone on Israel” and steady support for NATO as central to her foreign policy objectives. Her leadership would ensure that NATO remains a robust counterbalance to Russian aggression, with the US playing a leading role.
Conversely, Trump’s “America First” approach could strain alliances. Fox News reported that a Trump victory might usher in a more isolationist foreign policy, potentially damaging relations with key allies. Trump’s vision for a reformed NATO, where the US reduces its security commitments, could lead to a fragmented alliance. European nations might be compelled to increase their defense spending and take on greater military responsibilities, altering the strategic dynamics within NATO.
The Ukraine war remains a central issue in the 2024 US presidential election. A Harris victory would mean continued US support for Ukraine and efforts to integrate more countries into NATO. This aligns with Biden’s legacy of countering Russian aggression and supporting Ukrainian sovereignty. Harris’ administration would likely maintain the current trajectory, with ongoing military aid and diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia internationally.
In contrast, Trump’s approach could alter the course of the conflict. His emphasis on ending the war suggests a possible shift towards negotiations and a reduction in US involvement. This could benefit Russia by potentially allowing it to secure favorable terms in any peace settlement. Trump’s reluctance to confront Putin and his admiration for Orban’s policies indicate a potential pivot towards a more conciliatory stance on Russia.
NATO’s future also hinges on the election’s outcome. Harris’ firm support for NATO and its expansion underscores a commitment to collective security. Her administration would likely work to integrate more Eastern European countries into the alliance, strengthening its defensive capabilities. This would serve as a deterrent to Russian aggression and reinforce the US’s role as a global leader in security matters.
Trump’s potential policies, however, could lead to a redefined NATO. His dissatisfaction with NATO allies’ defense spending has been a recurring theme, and a second Trump term could see the US pushing for a two-tier alliance. This system would prioritize support for countries meeting the 2% GDP defense spending criteria, potentially leaving other members with reduced security guarantees. Such a shift could weaken NATO’s cohesion and alter its strategic posture.
The US presidential election is crucial for the international community, as it influences the global balance of power. Despite the ongoing transition from a unipolar American-dominated world to a more multipolar one, the US remains a pivotal global power. The election’s outcome will shape future geopolitical events, including the Ukraine war and NATO’s evolution.
Harris’ candidacy represents continuity, with policies that align closely with Biden’s. This includes unwavering support for Ukraine, a strong commitment to NATO, and a firm stance against Russian aggression. Her presidency would likely reinforce the current international order, with the US playing a central role in maintaining global stability.
Trump’s candidacy, on the other hand, introduces the possibility of significant policy shifts. His “America First” approach and willingness to engage with Russia and its allies suggest a more isolationist stance. This could lead to a redefined US role in global affairs, with a focus on internal matters and reduced involvement in international conflicts.
The 2024 US presidential election is pivotal for the international community, particularly concerning the Ukraine war and NATO’s future. Harris’ candidacy represents a continuation of Biden’s policies, ensuring sustained support for Ukraine and a strong NATO. Conversely, Trump’s candidacy introduces the possibility of significant policy shifts, including a more isolationist foreign policy and a redefined role for the US within NATO.
Ultimately, the election’s outcome will shape global geopolitics and influence the trajectory of the Ukraine war. A Harris presidency would likely reinforce the current US position, while a Trump victory could herald a new era of US foreign policy, with profound implications for Ukraine, Russia, and the broader international order. The stakes are high, and the world is closely watching as the US approaches this critical juncture, poised to impact future geopolitical events and the balance of global power.
