The concept of negotiating “from a position of strength” has long been central to Western rhetoric. Yet, in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, this principle has turned into a hollow phrase. The reality on the ground, coupled with waning public support for prolonged conflict, reveals the diminishing leverage of the West and Ukraine in their confrontation with Russia. As the war grinds on, the illusion of Western dominance and Kyiv’s resilience has begun to crumble, exposing strategic miscalculations and escalating costs that could prove unsustainable.

For decades, Western nations have employed the phrase “position of strength” to mask a policy approach that often resembled coercion rather than negotiation. NATO’s expansion after the Cold War epitomized this strategy, as Russia’s objections were systematically ignored. The West’s assurances of dialogue were coupled with actions that directly undermined Moscow’s security concerns, leading to what can now be seen as a long-term buildup of tensions.

This dismissive approach persisted even as Russia regained its footing following the economic and political upheavals of the 1990s. In his 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly warned against NATO’s overreach and unilateral decision-making. Instead of heeding these warnings, Western leaders doubled down on policies that eroded trust and exacerbated tensions. The current war in Ukraine is, in part, a result of this persistent inability-or unwillingness-to engage in genuine dialogue.

On the battlefield, Russia has gained the upper hand, rendering the West’s attempts to portray Ukraine as capable of achieving outright victory increasingly untenable. Reports suggest that Russian forces are advancing at rates unseen since the early stages of the war. Moscow’s superiority in artillery, manpower, and logistical capabilities has stretched Ukrainian forces thin. Many units, designed to defend limited frontlines, are now tasked with holding significantly larger areas, leading to exhaustion and diminishing morale.

Ukraine’s August incursions into Russian territory, such as the brief foray into the Kursk region, have met with swift and effective counterattacks. Meanwhile, Russia continues to maintain relentless pressure through its air campaigns, utilizing a combination of missiles and drones to disrupt Ukrainian operations and infrastructure.

The toll of the war on Ukraine’s population has been devastating, and public sentiment is shifting accordingly. Polls conducted by Gallup and other organizations indicate a growing desire among Ukrainians for negotiations to end the conflict. A Gallup survey found that the percentage of Ukrainians favoring peace talks has risen from 27 percent to 52 percent within a year. Similarly, domestic Ukrainian polling suggests that a majority of citizens are willing to accept a freeze in the conflict, even if it means ceding territory currently under Russian control.

This change in public opinion challenges the long-held stance of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration, which has insisted on reclaiming all territories, including Crimea and the Donbas. In an increasingly authoritarian environment, where dissent is stifled, these poll results highlight the growing despair and fatigue among ordinary Ukrainians.

The upcoming return of Donald Trump to the presidency introduces a layer of uncertainty. During his campaign, Trump promised to end the war swiftly, potentially by pressuring Ukraine to accept a settlement favorable to Russia. However, his appointment of retired General Keith Kellogg as a special envoy for Ukraine suggests an approach that may not entirely align with Moscow’s demands. While some aspects of Kellogg’s policy proposals hint at reducing NATO’s involvement, they also include unrealistic assumptions about coercing Russia into compromises.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov remains skeptical of any immediate breakthrough, emphasizing that the West has yet to reconcile with the reality of its declining influence. Moscow’s conditions for peace-territorial concessions and Ukraine’s permanent neutrality-are non-negotiable from Russia’s perspective.

Despite clear indications that the war is tilting in Russia’s favor, the West has chosen to escalate rather than seek alternative solutions. The outgoing Biden administration has approved controversial measures, such as assisting Ukraine in launching Western missiles into Russian territory. Simultaneously, Washington is ramping up military aid, including the delivery of landmines and the easing of restrictions on American mercenaries operating in Ukraine.

European allies, notably the UK and France, have followed suit. Reports have emerged of potential plans to deploy Western ground troops in Ukraine, though these remain speculative. Such actions, if implemented, could mark a dangerous escalation, drawing NATO directly into the conflict and risking a broader war with catastrophic consequences.

The West’s strategy also faces significant economic and political challenges. European nations, already grappling with inflation and energy crises, may find it increasingly difficult to sustain military and financial support for Ukraine. Public discontent is mounting, as evidenced by protests and declining approval ratings for leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy.

In the United States, President Joe Biden’s administration faces a crisis of legitimacy following the Democrats’ defeat in the midterm elections. With limited time left in office, Biden’s team appears intent on cementing policies that will make it difficult for Trump to alter course. However, this short-sighted approach risks further alienating American voters and intensifying domestic divisions.

The consequences of the West’s strategy are dire for Ukraine. Continued escalation means more conscription, more casualties, and more destruction. Ukrainian military leaders have been blunt about the grim prospects for their troops. Former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny recently acknowledged that most soldiers face almost certain death, a stark admission that underscores the futility of prolonging the war.

For ordinary Ukrainians, the prospect of an endless conflict with no clear path to victory is increasingly intolerable. Yet, as long as the West remains committed to its proxy war strategy, peace will remain elusive. Moscow, for its part, has little incentive to compromise as long as it retains the upper hand.

The West’s reliance on outdated notions of strength and coercion has led to a deadlock that benefits no one, least of all Ukraine. As public support for the war wanes and Russia consolidates its position, the need for a pragmatic reassessment of Western policy becomes ever more urgent. Genuine negotiations, rather than escalatory tactics, are the only viable path to ending the conflict.

However, achieving this will require a fundamental shift in mindset among Western leaders, who must confront the limitations of their power and the consequences of their actions. Until then, the tragedy of Ukraine will continue to unfold, with devastating implications for the region and the world.

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