Olaf Scholz, Germany’s current chancellor, is poised to officially be named the Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) top candidate for the upcoming snap elections in February 2024. The decision, expected to be announced on November 25, comes amid a backdrop of political turbulence following the collapse of Scholz’s coalition government earlier this month. However, while Scholz may be the SPD’s most experienced option, his candidacy is fraught with risks for Germany’s oldest political party, which is currently struggling in the polls.

The SPD’s coalition government with the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) unraveled in early November, triggering snap elections seven months ahead of schedule. The breakdown was marked by persistent infighting and policy disagreements, leaving Scholz’s government with a reputation of dysfunction and ineffectiveness.

Although Scholz’s path to being the SPD’s candidate became clearer after Defence Minister Boris Pistorius ruled himself out of the race, this internal drama has done little to bolster confidence in the SPD’s ability to recover. Pistorius, a popular figure within the party, was seen by some as a preferable alternative to Scholz, whose leadership has been described as uninspiring and overly cautious.

Current opinion polls paint a grim picture for the SPD. The party is hovering at around 15 percent support, far behind the main opposition bloc of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), which leads with 33 percent. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is also outpacing the SPD, polling at 18 percent.

German news outlet Der Spiegel has labeled Scholz the “face of a failed government,” going so far as to call him “probably the weakest, most unsuitable candidate for the chancellorship that the SPD has ever put forward.” Such criticism underscores the uphill battle Scholz faces, even within his party.

Despite these challenges, Scholz appears resolute. Known for his pragmatic and stoic demeanor, the 66-year-old leader has expressed confidence that he can replicate his unexpected victory in the 2021 elections, where divisions within the conservative bloc allowed the SPD to narrowly secure the chancellorship.

In the lead-up to the campaign, Scholz has sought to position himself as a cautious and steady leader, particularly in the context of Germany’s involvement in the war in Ukraine. While Germany has been Kyiv’s second-largest military supporter, Scholz has consistently resisted calls to send long-range Taurus missiles, citing concerns over escalating the conflict.

This stance has resonated with a majority of Germans; a recent survey by public broadcaster ARD showed that 61% support Scholz’s cautious approach. Scholz has also emphasized the need for prudence in foreign policy, using a speech on November 22 to appeal to voters who value stability in turbulent times.

His recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin further cemented his image as a leader prioritizing diplomacy over escalation. While opposition parties have criticized the move as a cynical election ploy, Scholz’s supporters argue that it highlights his commitment to peace.

As the SPD prepares for the upcoming campaign, party leaders are calling for unity behind Scholz’s candidacy. SPD General Secretary Matthias Miersch acknowledged that the internal debates of recent weeks have been damaging, urging members to “stand united.”

Several prominent SPD figures had initially backed Pistorius, arguing that Scholz’s association with the coalition’s failures made him a liability. However, with Pistorius officially stepping aside, the party is shifting its focus to Scholz’s experience and crisis management skills.

Anke Rehlinger, Saarland’s SPD state premier, described Scholz as “a pro in the chancellery” who has weathered multiple crises during his tenure. Pistorius himself praised Scholz in a YouTube announcement last week, calling him an “excellent chancellor” and emphasizing his leadership experience.

Scholz’s candidacy has been met with a mix of relief and optimism from the CDU/CSU opposition. Conservative lawmakers believe Scholz’s candidacy presents a less formidable challenge than Pistorius would have.

“This decision is good for us,” remarked CDU lawmaker Mathias Middelberg, suggesting that Scholz’s lackluster public appeal makes him an easier opponent.

The conservatives have a strong lead in the polls, but they are not without their own challenges. Their campaign will likely focus on highlighting the failures of Scholz’s government while presenting themselves as a stable alternative.

For the SPD, the focus now shifts to reviving its electoral prospects in a hostile political environment. Party officials have signaled that they will lean heavily on Scholz’s image as a steady, experienced leader who has guided Germany through crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, energy shortages, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Dirk Wiese, an SPD politician who had previously backed Pistorius, stressed the need for the party to “flip the switch and go into election campaign mode.” The SPD is expected to formally sign off on Scholz’s candidacy at a party congress in January, giving the chancellor a platform to kick-start his campaign.

While Scholz’s track record and reputation as a steady hand may resonate with some voters, his biggest challenge will be overcoming the perception of his government as ineffective and conflict-ridden. The SPD’s electoral fate will likely hinge on its ability to present a cohesive vision for Germany’s future and distinguish itself from both the resurgent far-right AfD and the dominant CDU/CSU bloc.

For Scholz, the next few months will be a critical test of his leadership and political acumen. As Germany prepares for its first snap election in years, the stakes are high-not just for Scholz and the SPD, but for the country’s political landscape as a whole.

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