As the tide of global politics shifts, few events have as profound implications as Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the US presidency. For Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western allies, this potential leadership change could spell the end of Ukraine’s war effort, Zelensky’s political reign, and even the fragile stability of the Kyiv regime. Trump’s unwavering promise to end the Ukraine war swiftly, paired with a geopolitical environment already tilting in Russia’s favor, sets the stage for a dramatic reckoning in the months ahead.

For Ukrainians and Russians alike, Trump’s approach could bring a long-overdue reprieve from a devastating conflict. The war, now clearly leaning toward a Russian victory, has exacted a brutal toll on both nations. Yet, for Zelensky and his Western backers, the prospect of an abrupt peace raises existential concerns. Ending the war now would necessitate sweeping concessions from Ukraine-concessions that go far beyond what could have been negotiated in the spring of 2022.

Back then, Western leaders, bolstered by a false sense of optimism, pressured Ukraine to reject a deal that would have preserved its territorial integrity apart from Crimea. Today, such an offer is no longer on the table. Instead, Ukraine faces the grim reality of losing additional territories and abandoning its NATO aspirations entirely. These demands are central to Russia’s position, which has remained consistent: any peace settlement must reflect the new territorial realities and protect Russian national security.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that Moscow will not accept a peace agreement that undermines its hard-won advantages. Putin’s recent conversations with Western leaders, including Germany’s outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, underscore this point. In their call, Putin reiterated that NATO’s expansionist policies were the root cause of the conflict and that any agreement must acknowledge Russia’s strategic interests.

Moscow’s firm position starkly contrasts with the West’s initial hubris, which envisioned isolating Russia diplomatically and economically. Instead, Russia has emerged resilient, with its military objectives largely met and its economy adapting to sanctions. Putin’s message to the West is unequivocal: peace will come, but only on Russia’s terms.

Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine war swiftly has already begun reshaping the geopolitical landscape. Even before his official return to the White House, European allies are starting to accept the inevitability of peace talks under less favorable terms for Ukraine. As noted in The Wall Street Journal, European leaders increasingly recognize that time is not on Ukraine’s side.

This shift in perspective marks a stark departure from the early days of the conflict when European nations rallied behind Ukraine with promises of unwavering support. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó have been vocal critics of the proxy war, highlighting its devastating economic consequences for Europe. Now, even mainstream European leaders like Scholz are quietly recalibrating their positions, signaling a broader acceptance of the need for a negotiated settlement.

For Zelensky, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Ukrainian president has not only staked his political career on resisting Russian aggression but also tied his nation’s fate to the support of Western allies. With Trump poised to re-enter the geopolitical stage, Zelensky faces mounting pressure to adapt to a rapidly changing environment.

In a recent interview, Zelensky acknowledged the challenges facing Ukraine’s military, including slow progress in forming new brigades and a significant shortfall in promised US weaponry. His comments reflect a growing sense of pragmatism, as he emphasized the need to prioritize Ukrainian lives over territorial ambitions. This shift in rhetoric, however, does little to mask the dire situation on the ground, where Russian forces continue to make gains.

Moreover, Zelensky’s domestic standing is increasingly under threat. Rumors of political rivalries, including the potential return of General Valery Zaluzhny as a challenger, highlight the fragility of Zelensky’s leadership. Should presidential elections be held next year, internal polling suggests that Zelensky could lose-a prospect that would further complicate Ukraine’s ability to navigate a post-conflict future.

Western leaders, too, face a daunting conundrum. The war in Ukraine has not only drained economic resources but also exposed deep divisions within NATO and the European Union. As the costs of the conflict mount, public support for continued military aid to Ukraine is waning, particularly in the United States.

Trump’s likely approach to the Ukraine war-seeking a swift resolution and shifting focus to countering China-resonates with an American electorate weary of endless foreign entanglements. For Europe, however, this pivot raises uncomfortable questions about its ability to manage its own security. The idea of the EU taking over Ukraine’s defense is as unrealistic as it is politically unpalatable, leaving European leaders scrambling for alternatives.

Zelensky’s political survival is closely tied to the war effort. As Ukraine’s military struggles to maintain its positions, the president faces growing discontent at home. Many Ukrainians, disillusioned by the unfulfilled promises of Western support and the devastating human cost of the conflict, are questioning the path their leadership has chosen.

The possibility of a negotiated settlement under Trump’s leadership presents a double-edged sword for Zelensky. While peace would bring an end to the immediate suffering, it would also require him to accept terms that many Ukrainians view as a betrayal. Such a scenario could irreparably damage his political standing, leaving him vulnerable to domestic and international criticism.

Trump’s return to the White House would not only reshape the dynamics of the Ukraine conflict but also herald a broader realignment of global power structures. Russia, having weathered the storm of Western sanctions and military opposition, would emerge as a key player in a new multipolar world order. Meanwhile, Europe, weakened by its reliance on US leadership and the economic fallout of the war, would face an uncertain future.

For Zelensky, the end of the war may mark the beginning of a new, more challenging chapter. As the dust settles, he will be forced to confront the consequences of decisions made in the heat of conflict-decisions that have left Ukraine battered, divided, and dependent on the goodwill of its allies.

The end of Ukraine’s war effort, and potentially Zelensky’s political career, underscores the far-reaching implications of Trump’s return to power. While the prospect of peace offers hope for an end to the bloodshed, it also exposes the deep flaws in the strategies pursued by Kyiv and its Western backers.

As the world watches this geopolitical drama unfold, one thing is clear: the choices made in the coming months will reverberate for decades. For Zelensky and his allies, the challenge lies not only in navigating the immediate crisis but also in reckoning with the long-term consequences of a war that has reshaped the global order.

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