The 29th UN Climate Change Conference, COP29, began in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 11. Over the next two weeks, representatives from more than 190 nations will wrestle with one of humanity’s greatest challenges: the relentless rise in global carbon emissions. Beyond the familiar urgency of reducing emissions, the conference has taken on additional weight as developing countries demand action from wealthier nations to deliver long-promised financial assistance for adapting to and mitigating climate change.

As the effects of climate change become increasingly destructive, the world’s divided geopolitical climate casts a shadow over the conference. Whether COP29 can build on the fragile progress achieved at COP28 in Dubai or succumb to the weight of unfulfilled promises remains to be seen.

COP29 negotiators are tasked with two intertwined but distinct challenges: securing firm commitments from leading economies to cut emissions and ensuring that wealthier nations finally deliver on their financial obligations. The importance of these commitments cannot be overstated.

Global carbon emissions have risen to unprecedented levels, and scientific warnings about the consequences are increasingly dire. To meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement and limit global temperature rise to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, nations must drastically reduce emissions. However, achieving this goal requires more than promises; it demands concrete timelines, measurable progress, and accountability mechanisms.

Equally pressing is the issue of climate finance. For over two decades, wealthier nations have pledged financial support to developing countries to help them adapt to climate impacts, transition to renewable energy, and reduce emissions. Yet, these promises have largely gone unfulfilled. Developing nations, which house more than 75 percent of the global population, face escalating climate-related disasters. From devastating floods in South Asia to prolonged droughts in Africa, these countries are suffering disproportionately despite contributing the least to the crisis.

The failure of wealthy nations to honor their commitments erodes trust and hinders progress in global climate negotiations. COP29 provides an opportunity to rectify this imbalance, but the path forward is fraught with challenges.

The global political landscape is as fractured as it has been in decades, complicating efforts to forge consensus at COP29. Long-standing conflicts, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine crisis, dominate international relations. Simultaneously, tensions between major powers like the United States, China, and the European Union further polarize the global community.

Even relations between Africa and Europe, particularly France, have become strained, highlighting the extent of the distrust between nations. This geopolitical backdrop creates an environment where collaboration on global issues, including climate change, becomes increasingly difficult.

Some observers note that the world feels more divided now than during the Cold War, a period defined by ideological polarization but also marked by occasional cooperation on global challenges. In this climate of distrust, COP29 negotiators face an uphill battle to secure meaningful agreements.

Despite these challenges, COP28 in Dubai provided some reasons for cautious optimism. Under the presidency of Sultan Al-Jaber, the conference achieved significant milestones. Chief among them was the first-ever global stocktake, a comprehensive review of carbon emissions at the global and national levels. This exercise aimed to benchmark current emissions against the commitments made in the Paris Agreement, providing a foundation for accountability and corrective action.

Another landmark achievement was the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels in a “just, orderly, and equitable manner.” This commitment, reached in a country heavily reliant on fossil fuel revenues, was a breakthrough in global climate negotiations.

However, these successes remain largely theoretical. The transition agreement, like many other decisions in climate talks, exists primarily on paper. Still, the leadership displayed by Al-Jaber in navigating complex negotiations offers a blueprint for future conferences, including COP29.

Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s minister and the president of COP29, faces the daunting task of sustaining the momentum generated in Dubai. Like the UAE, Azerbaijan’s economy relies heavily on oil and gas exports, placing Babayev in a unique position to advocate for change while navigating his nation’s economic realities.

Babayev’s challenge is compounded by the need to balance competing priorities: pushing for ambitious emissions reductions and addressing the financial needs of developing nations. The similarities between Azerbaijan and the UAE-both oil-dependent nations with modern, globally connected capitals—offer some hope that Baku can replicate Dubai’s successes.

One of the most pressing issues at COP29 is the lack of accountability mechanisms in climate agreements. For years, nations have made lofty promises with little to no follow-through. This is particularly true of wealthy countries, which have consistently failed to meet their financial commitments.

To ensure meaningful progress, COP29 must establish a robust framework for accountability. This could include regular audits of national emissions, independent verification of progress toward climate goals, and penalties for non-compliance. Transparency will be key to rebuilding trust and fostering collaboration.

Accountability is especially critical in the realm of climate finance. Developing nations require substantial funding to build resilient infrastructure, transition to renewable energy, and cope with the immediate impacts of climate change. Without reliable financial support, these countries will struggle to meet their climate goals, perpetuating a cycle of vulnerability and inequality.

The lack of trust between nations is a significant barrier to progress at COP29. Wealthier nations must take the lead in rebuilding this trust by delivering on their financial promises. At the same time, developing countries must demonstrate their capacity to use financial aid effectively and transparently.

Negotiators must also address the broader geopolitical tensions that hinder collaboration. While COP29 cannot resolve conflicts or rivalries, it can serve as a platform for dialogue and cooperation on shared challenges.

COP29 represents a critical juncture in the global fight against climate change. The stakes could not be higher. Without decisive action, the world risks crossing tipping points that could lead to catastrophic and irreversible changes.

Babayev has the opportunity to shape COP29 into a turning point for climate action. By focusing on accountability, financial equity, and concrete emissions reductions, Baku can build on the fragile progress achieved in Dubai. However, achieving these goals will require bold leadership, innovative thinking, and a collective commitment to prioritizing the planet over politics.

As the conference unfolds, the world watches with bated breath, hoping that this time, promises will finally translate into action. In the face of mounting challenges, COP29 must rise to the occasion and deliver the solutions needed to combat the climate crisis.

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