As Donald Trump embarks on his second term as president, leaders and analysts worldwide are evaluating the potential shifts in US foreign policy that his administration might bring. Among those watching closely is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was among the first to congratulate Trump on his re-election. Erdogan expressed optimism that under Trump’s renewed leadership, Turkish-American relations could improve and that progress might be made in resolving major crises, such as the conflict in Palestine and the Russia-Ukraine war. However, amid this cautious optimism, Ankara remains concerned about potential complications stemming from Trump’s foreign policy stances, particularly regarding Israel.

Under Trump’s first term, Erdogan and Trump shared a close, though occasionally turbulent, relationship. The two leaders held multiple meetings and phone calls, which fostered an unusually direct communication style. Turkish policymakers observed that Trump and Erdogan seemed to have a similar approach to diplomacy: both preferred a transactional, leader-to-leader dynamic, bypassing institutional norms. This personal diplomacy led to moments of cooperation, such as Trump’s green light for Turkey’s military actions in northern Syria against the Kurdish YPG militia. For Ankara, this green light was a rare exception to US support for the YPG, which Turkey considers an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist organization.

Despite these gestures, Trump’s presidency was not without challenges for Turkey. Although Trump initially pledged to support Turkish interests in the region, these promises did not consistently materialize. Instead, Trump’s presidency saw several crises that tested Turkish-American relations, including economic sanctions imposed in response to Turkey’s detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson. These sanctions inflicted economic strain on Turkey, adding to its growing frustration with US policies that seemed to align more with institutional priorities than personal diplomacy.

While the Trump-Erdogan connection was notable for its directness, it could not resolve long-standing structural issues within Turkish-American relations. These foundational challenges trace back to the Obama administration, during which the US began supporting the YPG in Syria as an ally against ISIS, despite Turkey’s objections. Though Trump permitted Turkey’s limited military intervention against the YPG, he did not alter the US’s broader support for the group.

This unresolved issue has driven Turkey toward alternative alliances, most notably with Russia. By 2017, Turkey had collaborated with Russia through the Astana peace process on Syria and controversially purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense system-a move that resulted in US sanctions. Turkey’s pivot to Russia underscores its dissatisfaction with American policies and its readiness to diversify its alliances as a way to balance its security concerns.

Under President Joe Biden, the relationship between Washington and Ankara faced additional strains. Biden and Erdogan had minimal personal interaction, with neither leader visiting the other’s country during Biden’s term. Despite efforts to address mutual interests-such as when Turkey lifted its veto on Sweden’s NATO membership bid in exchange for an agreement on F-16 sales-key issues persisted. The stalled progress on the F-16 sale and the widening policy gap between the two countries, especially regarding Israel’s war on Gaza, have only further complicated the relationship.

Biden’s approach to foreign policy has been more traditionally diplomatic, emphasizing coalition-building and institutional norms over personalized diplomacy. This approach stands in contrast to Trump’s preference for leader-to-leader interactions, and the limited rapport between Biden and Erdogan further highlighted the rift in Turkish-American relations. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has also revealed stark policy differences between Biden and Erdogan, as Ankara’s support for the Palestinian cause clashes with Washington’s pro-Israel stance.

For Ankara, Trump’s second term brings both opportunities and risks. On one hand, Erdogan and Trump’s established rapport could offer Turkey a more direct line to the US president, potentially enabling more frequent communication on sensitive issues. However, the dynamics within Turkish-American relations have grown increasingly complex since Trump’s last term, especially in light of the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. As the US strengthens its alliances with Israel and Europe, Turkey’s balancing act between the West and Russia could come under greater scrutiny.

The Trump administration’s previous decision to move the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem remains a sore point for Turkey, which openly condemned the move. Given Erdogan’s strong support for the Palestinian cause, any US policy that appears to favor Israel could add tension to an already delicate relationship. Trump’s stance on Israel may again test Ankara’s patience, particularly as the conflict in Gaza intensifies and Turkey voices opposition to what it sees as Israeli aggression.

Experts agree that the longstanding structural issues in Turkish-American relations are unlikely to be fully resolved, even with Trump’s renewed leadership. Instead, a pragmatic approach to “compartmentalize” areas of agreement and disagreement may offer a more feasible path forward. This approach would involve Turkey and the US focusing on mutual interests-such as counterterrorism efforts, economic cooperation, and NATO commitments-while acknowledging that certain issues, such as support for the YPG, may remain contentious.

Despite recent challenges, Turkey’s role within NATO and its strategic location mean that it cannot be dismissed as a mere adversary by the US The interdependence created by NATO membership compels both countries to find ways to manage their disagreements without escalating hostilities. While Erdogan and Trump may not achieve a complete realignment of their countries’ interests, they can attempt to strengthen communication channels and seek compromises on areas of mutual concern.

Ultimately, Turkish-American relations in Trump’s second term will depend on a pragmatic balance between direct dialogue and careful compartmentalization of unresolved issues. Both Trump and Erdogan share a transactional approach to diplomacy, which could facilitate an open exchange of views. However, this approach alone will not be sufficient to overcome the structural and policy-based disagreements that continue to strain the relationship.

The key test for both leaders will be their ability to maintain stable ties amid regional conflicts, particularly the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine. These crises will challenge Turkey’s balancing act between the West and Russia and could push Erdogan to reevaluate his positions depending on how US policy under Trump shifts. Should Trump recognize Turkey’s geopolitical importance in regional stability and show flexibility in addressing contentious issues, the potential for improved Turkish-American relations remains viable.

While Trump’s second term may provide opportunities for stronger dialogue, the challenges in Turkish-American relations are deep-seated and unlikely to dissipate overnight. The prospect of a warmer personal relationship between Trump and Erdogan offers hope, but the complex web of geopolitical interests surrounding Turkey and the US will require more than just personalized diplomacy to achieve meaningful progress.

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