In an escalating diplomatic clash, Iran’s Foreign Ministry on November 9 labeled as “totally unfounded” the US accusation that Tehran was involved in an assassination attempt on Donald Trump. The claim, which stems from a newly unveiled US Justice Department complaint, alleges that Iranian operatives plotted to kill Trump in a murder-for-hire scheme. This accusation has added fresh fuel to the already simmering tensions between the US and Iran, further entangling a complex web of geopolitical disputes and longstanding grievances.

The Justice Department’s complaint, unsealed on November 8, implicates an Iranian individual named Farhad Shakeri in a scheme allegedly orchestrated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Shakeri, who US authorities claim is an Iranian government asset with prior criminal convictions, allegedly detailed to investigators his instructions to plan the assassination. According to the Justice Department, Shakeri had connections within Iran’s powerful paramilitary wing, the Revolutionary Guard, and purportedly received direct orders to surveil Trump and devise a plan for his assassination.

In response, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei categorically denied any involvement in the alleged plot. Baghaei stated that Iran “rejects allegations that Iran is implicated in an assassination attempt targeting former or current American officials,” describing the claims as another baseless attack aimed at painting Iran as a global threat. The Iranian UN Mission also refrained from commenting, aligning with the government’s general posture of silence on accusations from Washington.

US investigators claim that Shakeri, who has spent time in American prisons for robbery, maintained ties with criminal networks that Tehran supposedly recruited for surveillance and assassination purposes. He is alleged to have received orders from a Revolutionary Guard official in September to “set aside other work” and formulate a plan to kill Trump within a seven-day period. The complaint also notes that the official allegedly told Shakeri the plot could be postponed until after the US presidential election if needed, under the assumption that a post-election environment might simplify the operation.

Despite Shakeri’s supposed cooperation with US investigators through recorded telephone conversations, officials clarified that some of his disclosures were inaccurate, though they believe his claims about a plan targeting Trump were credible. For his part, Shakeri is believed to still be in Iran, unreachable by US authorities. Alongside Shakeri, two other men-Jonathan Loadholt and Carlisle Rivera-were arrested and accused of being part of a parallel plot to kill prominent Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad, a known critic of the Iranian regime who has faced multiple assassination attempts.

The alleged plot against Trump adds to a growing list of reported Iranian plans targeting both American and Iranian dissidents on US soil. FBI Director Christopher Wray commented on Iran’s “continued brazen attempts” to target US citizens, emphasizing that Iran’s involvement in such activities poses a significant threat to national security. The Justice Department highlighted the case as an example of Iran’s ongoing, aggressive tactics to silence critics and intimidate US officials who have challenged its policies.

Attorney General Merrick Garland similarly underscored the severity of the threat, noting that “few actors in the world pose as grave a threat to the national security of the United States as does Iran.” The alleged plot is not an isolated incident but is seen as part of a broader pattern by Iran to retaliate against U.S. officials, with Trump serving as a particularly contentious figure for the regime following his administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, the reimposition of economic sanctions, and the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.

This latest incident not only underscores the deep-seated animosity between Washington and Tehran but also complicates diplomatic efforts as Iran remains isolated in its defiance against Western policies. The alleged plot comes just days after Trump’s narrow victory over Kamala Harris, reigniting discussions about the Trump administration’s historically hardline stance toward Iran, which has arguably fueled Iran’s animus toward him.

Iran’s stated denial of involvement in these assassination plots highlights its cautious approach to maintaining a certain level of plausible deniability. For Tehran, Trump’s policy legacy remains a point of contention due to the immense economic impact of US sanctions, which severely damaged the Iranian economy and spurred widespread discontent among its citizens. The former president’s decision to pull the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) marked a turning point, souring relations with Iran to levels unseen since the 1980s. This souring of relations was compounded by Trump’s authorization of a drone strike that killed Soleimani, which Iran vowed to avenge.

Iran’s alleged activities against dissidents and officials in the US have escalated in recent years, extending to murder-for-hire plots targeting Iranian critics like Masih Alinejad. For Alinejad, who has lived in the US for years and has repeatedly voiced her opposition to the Iranian government’s human rights abuses, these assassination attempts underscore the extreme measures Tehran appears willing to employ to silence dissent abroad.

Alinejad, currently in Berlin, expressed her gratitude to law enforcement for preventing the plot against her life. However, she urged the US government to go beyond mere protective measures, pressing for action that addresses the broader national security implications. On social media, she posted, “I came to America to practice my First Amendment right to freedom of speech – I don’t want to die. I want to fight against tyranny, and I deserve to be safe.”

The alleged plot to assassinate Trump carries broader implications for both international security and US politics. As Iran’s threats expand to include not only government officials but also high-profile dissidents, federal law enforcement agencies face the challenge of protecting American citizens on US soil from foreign threats. The FBI has stepped up efforts to monitor and thwart such plots, but the challenges persist as Iran’s influence stretches beyond its borders, facilitated by alleged criminal networks like those associated with Shakeri.

For Trump, these recent allegations have added a new dimension to his ongoing political narrative, with his spokesperson Steven Cheung stating that nothing will deter Trump from “returning to the White House and restoring peace around the world.” The revelation could also reinforce Trump’s support among voters who perceive him as tough on Iran and committed to national security.

While the US Justice Department’s allegations against Iran remain unproven in court, the implications of the alleged assassination plot are already reverberating across diplomatic and security circles. For the Biden administration and future administrations, balancing the risks posed by Iran with potential diplomatic engagement will be challenging as Iran increasingly faces isolation over its nuclear ambitions and alleged threats. Whether these accusations result in concrete actions against Iran, they certainly underline the extent of hostilities and raise serious questions about Iran’s commitment to non-aggression. In the meantime, the diplomatic chasm between the two nations seems likely to grow deeper, adding complexity to a longstanding, volatile standoff.

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