In a bold and coordinated move last week, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Canada imposed another round of sanctions on Myanmar’s military regime. This latest action underscores the West’s continued condemnation of the junta’s brutal rule, which has seen systematic and escalating killings of civilians, widely recognized as crimes against humanity. While these sanctions are framed as a tool to weaken the regime’s grip on power, questions linger about their effectiveness in pressuring the military government and curbing its violent actions.

Myanmar, under the thumb of one of the most oppressive military dictatorships in recent history, is in the midst of an unprecedented crisis since the coup d’état of February 2021. The military, known as the Tatmadaw, quickly dismantled democratic structures, replacing them with violent repression aimed at silencing any opposition. Since then, Myanmar’s military regime has unleashed a relentless wave of terror across the country, from peaceful protesters to ethnic minorities, employing extreme brutality in efforts to retain control.

Reports indicate that the Tatmadaw has escalated its crackdown, with over 4,000 civilians killed, including children, and thousands more subjected to arbitrary detention, torture, and forced labor. The military has shifted tactics from conventional warfare to methods often associated with authoritarian police states, deploying terror on a grand scale. Villages are burned, communities displaced, and summary executions are commonplace. This unrestrained violence has prompted stronger international responses, with sanctions seen as the primary tool for the West to pressure the junta.

However, despite the imposition of these sanctions, their effectiveness remains uncertain. The latest round targets Myanmar’s military conglomerates, including the Myanmar Economic Corporation and Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited, which generate significant revenue for the junta. The sanctions also seek to restrict the export of dual-use technologies-those that can serve both civilian and military purposes-thus limiting the junta’s ability to acquire surveillance tools, cyberwarfare capabilities, and military components. These measures are intended to hurt the military regime’s ability to sustain its violent control.

The theoretical objectives behind these sanctions are twofold: to financially strain the junta and to deprive it of technological resources vital for its repression. The hope is that by cutting off the junta’s access to critical funding and military hardware, the regime will be forced to refocus on internal resource management, ultimately weakening its capacity for further violence and repression. In an ideal scenario, these measures would encourage Myanmar’s military leaders to alter course, reduce their reliance on violence, and negotiate with opposition groups or the international community.

However, this assumes that sanctions will indeed force meaningful change, which is far from guaranteed. Myanmar’s military has shown an uncanny ability to weather international pressure, largely due to its deep and enduring relationships with regional powers such as China and Russia. Both countries have actively undermined Western-led sanctions by providing the junta with supplies, resources, and even military support. China, with its long border with Myanmar, plays a particularly crucial role, offering essential intelligence and logistical assistance to the regime. Russia, on the other hand, has openly supported the junta with military hardware, including Russian-made helicopters, jets, and artillery systems that are critical to the regime’s violent crackdowns.

As long as these countries continue to back Myanmar’s military, the impact of Western sanctions will likely remain limited. The junta can continue to access resources and maintain its military operations through these external channels, which undermine the intended effects of sanctions. This external support, combined with the junta’s ability to generate revenue through domestic channels, complicates efforts to isolate it economically. Myanmar’s military conglomerates are deeply embedded within the country’s economy, controlling vast sectors from natural resources to retail, allowing the junta to generate significant funds despite international isolation. Additionally, Myanmar’s military has developed extensive smuggling networks, enabling it to circumvent sanctions and obtain key materials illicitly.

Despite these challenges, sanctions may still succeed in weakening the junta politically. A key pillar of the regime’s strength is its ability to maintain a degree of legitimacy, both domestically and internationally. However, as Myanmar faces increasing economic hardship and international isolation, the junta’s domestic legitimacy could erode. The alignment with pariah states like Russia and China-at a time when the West is actively targeting the regime with sanctions-could weaken the junta’s standing among its own people. Economic isolation and the resulting inflation, food shortages, and economic hardship could fuel widespread resentment, ultimately leading to greater domestic opposition.

While economic sanctions may not be the silver bullet to bring about immediate regime change, they can contribute to shifting the political environment in Myanmar. However, for sanctions to be truly effective, they must be coupled with proactive measures that support the democratic opposition within Myanmar. One significant oversight in sanctions strategies is the lack of direct support for resistance groups that oppose the junta’s rule. The National Unity Government (NUG), formed by ousted leaders of Myanmar’s democratically elected government, and various ethnic armed resistance organizations have continued to fight for the rights of the people. These groups represent the aspirations of a majority of Myanmar’s population, who have suffered immensely under the junta’s terror.

Western nations should consider providing financial, logistical, and humanitarian aid to these groups, strengthening their efforts to form a counterforce to the military regime. Support for these democratic resistance movements could prove instrumental in the long-term struggle for Myanmar’s future. This assistance should not only aim to sustain resistance but also empower local leaders and communities to forge a path toward a more democratic and inclusive Myanmar.

The situation in Myanmar remains dire, with the military regime continuing to perpetrate atrocities against its people. While international sanctions are a vital tool for pressuring the junta, they have proven ineffective on their own in curbing its power. To achieve real change, Western nations must recognize that economic isolation alone will not be enough. It must be paired with sustained efforts to support Myanmar’s internal democratic resistance and strengthen the resolve of the people fighting for freedom. Only then can there be hope for a meaningful transformation and the restoration of democracy in Myanmar.

Please follow Blitz on Google News Channel