Moldova’s incumbent pro-European Union (EU) president, Maia Sandu, has emerged victorious in a heated presidential runoff held on November 3. Official data from the Central Election Committee (CEC) confirms Sandu’s re-election with 55.33 percent of the vote, overtaking her opponent, former prosecutor general Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who received 44.67 percent. However, Sandu’s win is shadowed by accusations of voter irregularities and interference claims that the opposition has capitalized on to challenge her legitimacy.

The CEC announced on Monday that with all votes counted, Sandu would retain her position as president for another term. She initially declared victory on November 4, when about 98 percent of the ballots had been processed, showing her leading by a significant ten-point margin. The final results reflected an official turnout of 54.31 percent among registered voters, surpassing Moldova’s 20 percent threshold for validating election outcomes. However, the Socialists, Moldova’s largest opposition party, have refused to accept the outcome, declaring Stoianoglo the “true winner” of the election and claiming widespread irregularities in the voting process.

Maia Sandu’s path to victory in this election relied heavily on support from the Moldovan diaspora, particularly those residing in Western European countries. In the first round of voting last month, Sandu garnered 42 percent of the vote compared to Stoianoglo’s 26 percent, with overseas voters playing a critical role in propelling her campaign. Although she won the first round, her vote share fell short of the 50 percent majority needed to avoid a runoff.

On November 3^rd runoff, Moldovans abroad again lent Sandu considerable backing. However, the Socialists have criticized the weight of the diaspora vote, referring to Sandu as a “president of the diaspora” and insisting that her international appeal does not reflect the preferences of Moldovans within the country. The party argued that more than 51 percent of in-country voters supported Stoianoglo, making him, in their view, the “president of the people.” The party has cited this distinction as a major reason for not recognizing Sandu’s re-election, further escalating tensions.

The Socialists, who have backed Stoianoglo throughout the election, argue that the electoral process was compromised by numerous violations. Moldovan police reported 225 incidents on election day, with accusations ranging from voter bribing and ballot damage to illegal political agitation. Alleged issues extended beyond these claims, as the Socialists accused the government of blocking access to polling stations, tampering with ballot boxes, and other forms of electoral misconduct.

Even before the elections, Sandu raised concerns of foreign meddling in Moldova’s democratic process, pointing to “clear evidence” that organized criminal groups, with alleged support from “foreign forces hostile to our national interests,” were working to undermine the election. The incumbent did not specify particular countries or individuals, though her accusations were broadly interpreted as targeting Russian influence. The Kremlin denied any interference and demanded that Sandu provide evidence to substantiate her claims, setting the stage for ongoing diplomatic tension between Moldova and Russia.

These accusations of interference are not new to Moldova, a former Soviet republic whose political landscape is heavily polarized between pro-EU and pro-Russian camps. Sandu’s administration has sought closer ties with Europe, a shift that has prompted criticism from political opponents and Moscow, with some accusing her of pushing a Western-backed agenda at the expense of national interests.

Sandu’s pro-European stance has garnered support from EU leaders, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulating her on her re-election and affirming her commitment to “work together towards a European future for Moldova and its people.” Sandu’s platform includes EU integration, which has substantial, though divided, support among Moldovans.

In fact, Moldova recently held a referendum to amend its constitution to reflect its EU aspirations. The amendment passed by a slim margin of 50.35  percent, underscoring the division among Moldovans over the issue. While the pro-EU camp hailed the result as a mandate for Sandu’s policies, opponents argued that the result reveals how narrowly split the nation is regarding its European ambitions.

Sandu’s victory also signals continuity in Moldova’s pursuit of EU membership, a move seen by supporters as a way to ensure stability and economic growth. However, her critics argue that this approach could further alienate Moldova from Russia, an economic and political power whose influence still resonates within the country, particularly among those aligned with the opposition.

In response to Sandu’s victory, the Socialist Party has announced its intent to develop a “strategy to depoliticize state institutions and ensure equal conditions in electoral campaigns” alongside other opposition parties. They cited alleged irregularities and state influence over election procedures, claiming that the electoral environment favors the incumbent administration. In a statement, the Socialists declared that the election could not be considered a “free and democratic expression of the will of the people,” an assertion likely to spur further political instability.

The Socialists’ leader and Sandu’s rival, Stoianoglo, has become a rallying point for the opposition’s grievances, which center on claims of Sandu’s “illegitimacy” as a leader propped up by foreign allies rather than genuine domestic support. Although the Socialists have stopped short of outlining specific measures in response to the election outcome, they vowed to protect the interests of Moldovans who they argue have been sidelined by the current administration.

Sandu’s second term is set to test Moldova’s resolve in aligning itself with Europe while managing a deeply polarized domestic landscape. With the backing of EU leaders, Sandu is likely to pursue further reforms aimed at integrating Moldova with the EU, advancing judicial independence, and combating corruption. Yet, given the opposition’s refusal to recognize her victory, her administration may face significant obstacles in implementing her agenda.

For many Moldovans, Sandu represents a departure from the nation’s Soviet past and a step toward a future aligned with Western democratic values. However, the stark divisions highlighted by the recent election and referendum point to a country still struggling to reconcile its identity and path forward. For her opponents, the future under Sandu’s leadership raises concerns of foreign influence and a weakening of ties with Russia. For her supporters, it represents hope for stability, economic opportunity, and democratic governance.

As Moldova navigates this political crossroads, Sandu will need to address both the domestic skepticism around her EU-focused policies and the criticisms that her presidency leans too heavily on foreign support. Whether she can bridge the political divide remains to be seen, but her victory indicates that Moldova’s European aspirations have garnered enough support to sustain her mandate, if not without opposition.

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