Donald Trump’s recent social media critique of Bangladesh, accusing it of “barbaric violence” against religious minorities and claiming it is in a “total state of chaos,” was widely noticed. This broadside, coming just days before the US presidential election, was seen by some as an attempt to appeal to Hindu-American voters, whose leaders have been advocating for Trump’s support on issues related to Hindu and minority rights abroad. Yet, Trump’s remarks, while perhaps aimed at electoral gains, could carry lasting policy consequences. If Trump returns to office, it may signal a new phase for US-Bangladesh relations, which have experienced renewed vigor under the current administration but could face fresh challenges due to differences in ideology and foreign policy priorities.

Under the Biden administration, US-Bangladesh relations experienced a much-needed reset following years of tension. The recent election in Bangladesh, coupled with a mass movement that ultimately led to the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, resulted in the formation of an interim government led by Nobel Laureate Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus as chief adviser. Professor Yunus’s rise to power was welcomed in Washington, especially as he has openly criticized Hasina’s authoritarian policies, positioning himself in closer alignment with US interests in promoting democratic governance. In response, the Biden administration quickly extended support, pledging development assistance, humanitarian aid, and technical expertise to help stabilize Bangladesh and advance its political and economic reforms.

Washington’s support for professor Yunus, however, may become a sticking point in a potential Trump administration. Yunus, known for his liberal values and ties with prominent US Democrats such as the Clintons, has openly criticized Trump’s previous presidency, suggesting that the former president’s policies were divisive. Given Trump’s often transactional approach to foreign policy, Yunus’s advocacy for liberal causes and his opposition to Trump’s views could make him an unlikely partner if Trump returns to office. A conservative-leaning administration might find Yunus’s progressive stance unappealing, potentially impacting how the US approaches its relations with Dhaka.

Since the interim government took power, the Biden administration’s primary focus has been on supporting Bangladesh’s internal stability and development through aid. US officials have prioritized development assistance, humanitarian aid, and technical support to foster political and economic resilience in post-Hasina Bangladesh. This approach aligns with a strategy of long-term partnership, which Washington sees as essential for maintaining influence in the Indo-Pacific and countering Chinese expansion in the region.

However, Trump’s foreign policy outlook is generally less focused on such aid-based partnerships. Known for his skepticism of nation-building efforts, Trump would likely approach US-Bangladesh relations from a more transactional perspective, placing greater emphasis on issues like trade and countering Chinese influence. In this context, a Trump-led administration may deprioritize the current humanitarian and reform-focused strategy, which could leave Bangladesh facing economic challenges without the same level of US support. Trump might instead prioritize trade and defense cooperation, aligning the partnership with broader US interests in the region, including Indo-Pacific stability.

During Trump’s first term, US-Bangladesh relations saw significant growth in trade, with American companies increasing investments and Bangladesh becoming a valuable trading partner. Trump’s focus on trade, driven by economic pragmatism, led to an exponential rise in the volume of goods traded between the two nations, solidifying economic links. Under a second Trump administration, trade and investment could once again become central to US-Bangladesh relations, though Bangladesh’s recent economic struggles could complicate this focus.

Bangladesh’s economic downturn poses potential difficulties for Trump’s trade-centered approach, as the country might struggle to maintain the same level of bilateral trade. A Trump administration might also view Bangladesh’s labor rights issues as a barrier, since these problems could hinder investment opportunities, especially from institutions like the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which requires stringent labor standards for project funding.

Trump’s return to office would likely bring renewed emphasis on countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region, a priority of his first administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Under Trump, the US viewed Bangladesh as a strategic partner in countering China’s influence, cooperating in areas like maritime security, counterpiracy, and military training. Bangladesh, under Hasina, maintained a balance between US and Chinese interests, though Trump encouraged stronger security cooperation with Dhaka as part of Washington’s broader Indo-Pacific goals.

With Yunus now leading Bangladesh, this balancing act could shift. Yunus, less beholden to India and potentially more open to China, may pursue stronger ties with Beijing than Hasina did. His lack of a strategic alliance with India, which often influenced Hasina’s policy choices, means he may make foreign policy decisions that are less favorable to New Delhi. This tilt toward Beijing could create friction with Trump, who would likely favor a Bangladesh policy aligned with his tough stance on China. If Yunus steers closer to China, US-Bangladesh relations could cool under a Trump presidency, potentially affecting Bangladesh’s standing within US-led Indo-Pacific initiatives.

While a potential Trump administration might deprioritize the current US approach based on humanitarian assistance and stabilization, there is room for compromise. Trump’s past rhetoric notwithstanding, Yunus’s government will recognize the importance of maintaining US support, especially given the strategic role that American investment and aid play in Bangladesh’s development. To reassure Washington, Bangladesh could emphasize that its outreach to China will not disrupt the balance between its ties with Beijing and its partnership with the US Dhaka could also stress its commitment to regional stability in the Indo-Pacific, a priority for both Washington and New Delhi.

Bangladesh’s leadership may also frame its relationship with the US as beneficial for both sides, making the case that American assistance can contribute to Bangladesh’s stability and prosperity, reinforcing its position as a reliable partner. This approach could appeal to Trump’s transactional mindset by underscoring how US aid can foster a more stable Bangladesh, potentially enhancing its role as a trade and strategic partner for the US in the Indo-Pacific. Bangladesh might further propose collaborations with the DFC on investment projects, assuming the DFC is reauthorized by Congress, which could help Bangladesh strengthen its economy while aligning with US strategic goals.

The 2024 US presidential election carries significant implications for US-Bangladesh relations. While US policy in South Asia generally enjoys bipartisan consensus, Bangladesh is a unique case where the election’s outcome could impact the bilateral relationship in considerable ways. A potential Trump administration may usher in a shift from humanitarian and development assistance to a more trade- and security-focused approach, with less emphasis on aid.

Even if Trump’s transactional approach shapes US-Bangladesh relations, there is a foundation for continuity, especially given Bangladesh’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific. A Trump administration might be more demanding, expecting Bangladesh to take on a greater financial role in the partnership. Still, Yunus, despite his ideological differences with Trump, would likely seek to maintain cooperation with Washington, aware of the benefits US engagement brings to Bangladesh’s economic and political stability.

Ultimately, the road ahead for Bangladesh will depend on how adeptly it navigates the complexities of US politics, balancing its relationship with Washington and its growing ties with Beijing. With both countries eyeing Dhaka as a valuable partner in the region, Bangladesh stands at a pivotal juncture in its foreign relations, facing potential shifts based on who occupies the White House.

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