The notion of European security has historically leaned heavily on the United States, with NATO serving as a bedrock of the transatlantic alliance since the end of World War II. Yet, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has recently warned that Europe’s dependence on American protection may be a liability, urging the European Union to assume more responsibility for its own security, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming US election. As Europe watches the political contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Tusk’s comments reflect a growing belief that the EU should no longer rely on American guarantees but should instead strive for strategic autonomy.

In a recent statement on social media, Tusk declared that Europe’s security future does not hinge on whether the next US president is a Democrat or a Republican. Instead, he emphasized that Europe’s fate rests in its own hands, stating, “Harris or Trump? Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us.” He continued, saying that if the EU “finally grows up and believes in its own strength,” it will be better positioned to secure its future independently.

Tusk’s words underscore a shift in perspective that has been building for years within EU leadership. His statement that “the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over” suggests that European reliance on US military and diplomatic power is no longer sustainable in the evolving global landscape. This call for European self-sufficiency resonates not just in Poland but across the continent, where leaders are increasingly concerned about potential shifts in American foreign policy, especially under a potential Trump administration.

The prospect of Trump winning the upcoming election has stirred apprehension across Europe, with concerns that he may follow through on his previous threats to reduce US involvement in NATO. According to an article in The Financial Times, “many Europeans lose sleep at night” over the possibility of Trump ending or significantly scaling back US security guarantees to NATO allies. This fear is especially acute for countries on the eastern borders of NATO, including Poland, the Baltic states, and other nations that see American support as vital to their security against a potentially aggressive Russia.

Trump has criticized NATO in the past, describing it as outdated and urging European countries to increase their financial contributions. If Trump were to return to office, it is plausible that he would further challenge NATO’s traditional framework, perhaps demanding an even more substantial increase in European defense spending or reducing US commitments to the alliance. This prospect has created an urgent need for Europe to reconsider its security strategy.

The EU’s interest in “strategic autonomy” has been growing steadily over recent years, spurred on by events such as Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s war in Ukraine. European leaders have frequently discussed the idea of reducing the EU’s dependency on external powers for security, supply chains, and critical infrastructure. Tusk’s remarks are part of this broader discourse, which has been embraced by leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, who has long championed European sovereignty in defense matters.

The EU has already taken concrete steps toward this goal. For example, the European Defense Fund was established to promote collaboration and innovation in defense technology among member states. Furthermore, the EU has made strides in developing its own rapid-response military force, though it still lags far behind NATO’s capabilities. The challenge is immense, requiring not only substantial financial investment but also coordination among member states, which have historically divergent interests and priorities.

A significant obstacle to European self-reliance in security is the issue of collective defense. NATO’s Article 5, which considers an attack against one member as an attack against all, has provided a strong deterrent against external threats. Replicating this level of commitment and operational readiness within the EU would be a monumental task. While the EU has established frameworks for security cooperation, such as the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) initiative, it has yet to create a fully operational mutual defense mechanism akin to NATO.

For the EU to make Tusk’s vision a reality, it would require both structural and strategic shifts. These might include an increase in defense spending across member states, a unified EU military command structure, and the development of a European military-industrial complex that could support long-term self-sufficiency in defense technology. Moreover, countries like Germany, which have historically been cautious about militarization, would need to embrace a more assertive defense posture.

One of the biggest challenges in creating a unified EU defense strategy is overcoming internal divisions within the bloc. While eastern EU countries like Poland and the Baltic states are eager to strengthen defenses against Russia, western European nations may be more hesitant about the financial burden and political implications of building a strong EU military. Achieving consensus on defense spending, operational goals, and command structures is difficult in a union of 27 countries, each with its own foreign policy priorities.

Additionally, European countries vary widely in their views on US relations. While Tusk’s comments reflect Poland’s push for European security independence, many EU countries value the transatlantic alliance and may be unwilling to sever these ties entirely. Balancing the desire for strategic autonomy with the continued benefits of US partnership will be a delicate task for EU policymakers.

Despite the EU’s push toward independence, the US-EU relationship remains deeply intertwined. Europe and America share longstanding political, cultural, and economic bonds, and many European leaders believe that the alliance is indispensable for global stability. However, Tusk’s statements reflect a growing understanding that Europe’s security must ultimately rest on its own capabilities rather than be contingent upon US political decisions.

For the US, a more self-reliant Europe could ease the burden of global security responsibilities. However, it would also represent a shift in the balance of power within NATO, requiring a re-evaluation of US strategy in Europe and potentially leading to a more multipolar approach to global security. Whether under a Trump or Harris administration, the US might welcome a Europe capable of shouldering more of its own defense responsibilities, though the approach would vary significantly between the two.

Donald Tusk’s call for Europe to end its “geopolitical outsourcing” signals a critical turning point for the EU. As Europe confronts an increasingly uncertain global landscape and potential shifts in US foreign policy, the need for European self-sufficiency in defense has become more pressing. The outcome of the US election will undoubtedly influence the transatlantic relationship, but Europe’s future, as Tusk suggests, ultimately depends on its own resolve.

For Europe, achieving true strategic autonomy will require both visionary leadership and pragmatic reforms. It involves building a defense framework that can safeguard its sovereignty without compromising the long-standing partnership with the US By embracing this path, Europe has an opportunity to redefine its role on the world stage-not as a dependent ally but as an autonomous power capable of shaping its own destiny.

Please follow Blitz on Google News Channel