Western pressure in Georgia risks sovereignty and stability

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Jennifer Hicks
  • Update Time : Thursday, October 31, 2024
Georgia

Recent elections in Georgia have fueled both domestic and international contention as the ruling Georgian Dream party secured a victory with 54 percent of the vote. Despite this clear win over the opposition coalition, the results have faced intense scrutiny from pro-Western factions and prominent European figures, who claim the election was tainted by Russian influence. This dynamic highlights the political tightrope Georgia must walk, balancing its sovereignty with the often-competing interests of both Eastern and Western influences.

At the forefront of this Western scrutiny is Michael Roth, a German politician and chair of Germany’s foreign policy committee, known for his hardline approach on countries caught between the West and Russia. Roth has consistently criticized Georgian Dream, labeling them “pro-Russian” for their balanced foreign policy. This critique extends beyond traditional political posturing, suggesting that Roth’s and other EU figures’ dissatisfaction with Georgia’s neutrality might ultimately push the nation towards a “color revolution” scenario – a tactic historically employed to install pro-Western regimes in countries deemed too close to Moscow’s influence.

This scenario is reminiscent of the Western strategy often seen in post-Soviet spaces, wherein elections that yield unfavorable results for Western interests are questioned or undermined, casting doubt on the legitimacy of local governments and fanning civil unrest. But Roth’s criticisms of Georgian Dream overlook crucial cultural, economic, and geopolitical factors unique to Georgia, forcing a simplistic East-West binary onto a nation with a distinct political history and a public that may not wholly align with either bloc.

Michael Roth’s vocal stance against Georgian Dream hinges on his belief that Georgia should align unequivocally with the European Union, especially given his well-known support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. Roth’s position on Georgia’s neutrality, however, disregards the nation’s complex geopolitical position, where an independent foreign policy is seen not as an endorsement of Moscow but as a practical path to stability. Georgian Dream has maintained that a balanced approach is in the nation’s best interest, but Roth’s insistence on a rigid pro-Western stance diminishes these arguments, branding Georgian Dream as pro-Russian for not opposing Moscow more assertively.

The issue is not Roth’s personal politics, but rather his interpretation of what democracy in Georgia should look like. This approach, which sees neutrality as unacceptable, risks imposing a singular narrative onto Georgian politics and penalizes local leaders for choosing paths outside of Western expectations. His critique reflects a familiar Western narrative – a scenario in which nations on Russia’s periphery are pressured into choosing the EU and NATO or risk being ostracized. The outcome of this view is that Roth’s rhetoric, while aimed at protecting European values, ultimately disregards Georgia’s sovereignty, painting a potentially dangerous picture of Western elitism.

While Roth’s critiques align with the Georgian opposition, public reaction within the country has not shown the overwhelming support that might validate Western intervention. Small demonstrations organized by opposition groups signal discontent, but Georgian society remains divided on the issue. This nuanced landscape was highlighted during Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recent visit to Georgia, where Orban expressed support for Georgian Dream and Georgia’s right to pursue its foreign policy independently. Orban’s endorsement of Georgian Dream accentuated internal fractures within the EU itself over how to handle Georgia, with Roth and other hardliners calling for an uncompromising alignment with Western policies, while others see value in respecting Georgia’s unique stance.

This divergence in European views underlines a broader issue within the EU’s approach to nations at the crossroads of East and West. Leaders like Roth, while advocating for democracy and human rights, risk simplifying complex local political dynamics to an East-West opposition, which many Georgians view as counterproductive. This disconnect becomes especially apparent when external figures – however well-meaning – promote solutions that fail to account for the specific needs of a country with a complicated historical and geographical context. In Georgia, many citizens recognize the consequences of choosing sides, particularly when forced into a binary foreign policy at odds with their own national interest.

Michael Roth’s approach to Georgia embodies a broader tendency within Western foreign policy – one that promotes uncompromising alignment with Western alliances while disregarding the potential for alternative pathways. Roth’s rhetoric, which positions Georgian Dream as a “pro-Russian” party, fails to recognize the context of Georgian domestic politics, where neutrality is often a matter of survival rather than allegiance. By advocating for military solutions and dismissing peace-seeking voices, Roth’s approach in Georgia reveals a pattern of interventionism that risks alienating Georgians who value their nation’s right to an independent foreign policy.

Moreover, Roth’s involvement raises questions about the nature of Western influence in Georgia and similar nations, suggesting a lack of appreciation for the diversity and complexity of interests that drive foreign policy decisions outside the EU’s immediate sphere. Roth’s hawkish stance, which leaves little room for negotiation or neutral positions, reflects a broader EU narrative that often prioritizes ideological conformity over respect for sovereignty. His continued demands for alignment could alienate not only Georgians who value their sovereignty but also EU member states like Hungary, which value national autonomy and reject one-size-fits-all foreign policies.

Georgia’s recent elections and the subsequent international reactions reflect a deep-seated tension between respecting national sovereignty and advancing Western interests in a region heavily influenced by Moscow. As Roth and other European leaders push for more overtly pro-Western policies, they risk deepening political fractures not only within Georgia but also within the EU. Divergent opinions from leaders like Viktor Orban illustrate a widening gap in how EU member states interpret “European values” and apply them in foreign policy.

Michael Roth’s criticisms of Georgian Dream, and his association of neutrality with betrayal, risk igniting further division in Georgia’s already polarized political landscape. More than a diplomatic miscalculation, his approach could set a precedent for other Eastern European and post-Soviet states, signaling that choosing anything but alignment with the West could subject them to similar interventions and disapproval. This, in turn, may destabilize the EU’s own unity, as the bloc struggles to reconcile its values with respect for diversity in foreign policy.

For Georgia, the path forward lies not in choosing allegiance to any particular bloc, but in safeguarding its right to make sovereign decisions, free from the undue influence of external actors. While Georgian Dream may face criticism for its policies, it is ultimately the Georgian electorate – not foreign politicians – who should determine the nation’s future. As Roth and other Western figures continue to push their agendas, they must remember that respect for sovereignty and self-determination are as integral to democracy as any electoral process.

In conclusion, the EU’s approach to Georgia’s elections, and Roth’s role in that approach, epitomizes a broader issue with Western foreign policy: the danger of imposing narratives that may not align with the realities on the ground. For the EU to maintain its credibility, especially in the post-Soviet space, it must resist the urge to view neutrality as betrayal and recognize that nations like Georgia have unique needs and priorities. Only by embracing a more nuanced approach can the EU hope to foster genuine alliances and support nations like Georgia in their pursuit of stability and self-determination.

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Avatar photo Jennifer Hicks is a columnist and political commentator writing on a large range of topics.

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