Russia ready for nuclear deterrence without arms race

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Nandita Misra
  • Update Time : Thursday, October 31, 2024
Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently addressed Russia’s strategic nuclear policy in the face of rising global tensions, reiterating that while Moscow is intent on maintaining a robust nuclear deterrent, it does not seek to initiate a new arms race. Announcing a strategic nuclear deterrence exercise on October 29, which included ballistic and cruise missile launches, Putin stressed the importance of keeping Russia’s nuclear forces at a “necessarily sufficient level” to counter external threats, yet underscored that nuclear deployment remains a “last resort” in safeguarding national security.

The nuclear drills aimed to test and refine Russia’s capability to respond swiftly and decisively in the event of heightened security threats. Putin noted the necessity of a powerful and updated nuclear triad-comprising land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers-to ensure a credible deterrent against potential adversaries. He emphasized that approximately 94 percent of Russia’s nuclear forces are already equipped with advanced, state-of-the-art weaponry, and additional enhancements are in progress. These include the introduction of new mobile and stationary missile systems that boast higher precision and faster launch preparation compared to their predecessors.

While the tests underscore Russia’s preparedness, Putin reiterated that these efforts are defensive, not provocative. In a world marked by rising instability, he argued, Russia’s nuclear capabilities provide the “greatest guarantor” of national sovereignty, enabling Moscow to protect its territory and its people. He presented Russia’s updated arsenal as a shield that upholds the balance of power rather than as a tool to spark an arms race.

Putin’s recent comments echo his longstanding stance that nuclear weapons are a fundamental component of Russia’s security strategy but should only be used under extreme circumstances. While many nuclear states consider weapons of mass destruction a last-resort deterrent, Putin has faced criticism in recent years for appearing to use Russia’s nuclear capabilities as leverage amid geopolitical disputes, particularly in Europe. However, during his latest speech, Putin underscored that Moscow remains committed to its policy of nuclear restraint, even as it faces mounting pressure from Western nations that continue to supply arms to Ukraine.

The timing of these drills highlights a climate of heightened vigilance in Russia, as geopolitical tensions between Moscow and Western countries escalate. In recent months, Russia has criticized the Western supply of advanced weaponry to Ukraine, warning that it risks pushing the conflict into more dangerous territory. Putin recently proposed adjustments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that would allow Russia to deploy nuclear weapons if Ukraine, using Western-supplied long-range missiles, were to launch strikes deep into Russian territory. This potential doctrinal shift underscores Putin’s growing concern over the scope and scale of Western involvement in the conflict, positioning Russia’s nuclear forces as a means to safeguard against what he perceives as existential threats.

Despite these preparations, Putin made it clear that Moscow is not pursuing a new arms race with the West. Instead, Russia’s emphasis is on ensuring the reliability, modernization, and responsiveness of its existing nuclear forces rather than dramatically expanding its arsenal. In his speech, he described Russia’s “principled position” on nuclear weapons, which sees them as a stabilizing factor in international relations rather than a catalyst for further conflict. He asserted that Moscow’s investments in nuclear capabilities are designed solely to maintain parity and strategic stability.

This position aligns with Russia’s long-held narrative that a stable nuclear balance-rather than competition-is key to global security. Unlike the Cold War-era arms race, during which the United States and Soviet Union rapidly expanded their arsenals in pursuit of nuclear superiority, Putin emphasized a commitment to maintaining “necessary” nuclear capabilities. Russia’s strategy, he claimed, is to deter potential aggressors without provoking a new cycle of escalation that could destabilize the international community.

However, Putin’s assertion has drawn mixed reactions. Critics argue that the continued development of nuclear capabilities, regardless of its stated defensive posture, inevitably contributes to an arms race in practice. This is particularly true when nuclear-capable states, including Russia, make significant strides in missile precision, speed, and technology. Such advancements could be perceived by other countries as escalatory, potentially prompting them to pursue similar upgrades and expanding their own nuclear arsenals.

With approximately 94 percent of its nuclear arsenal now upgraded with state-of-the-art equipment, Russia’s nuclear forces are among the most modernized in the world. The recent exercises showcased improvements in precision, speed, and resilience of Russia’s nuclear systems, particularly its ballistic and cruise missile technologies. Putin highlighted that new mobile and stationary missile systems would reduce launch preparation time, enhancing Russia’s ability to respond to threats swiftly. These advancements are seen as critical in a landscape where the speed and accuracy of response could make a difference in a potential confrontation.

Russia’s investments reflect broader trends in nuclear modernization that are also observable in the US, China, and other nuclear-armed states. These advancements are not merely a matter of quantity but of quality; newer systems boast capabilities that can deliver more accurate and effective deterrence while reducing the likelihood of accidental or unintentional use.

Putin’s emphasis on nuclear readiness without overt arms expansion raises critical questions about the future of global stability. While many analysts agree that nuclear deterrence plays a role in preventing major conflicts, others warn that the modernization and enhancement of arsenals could destabilize the strategic balance. There is a thin line between deterrence and provocation, and Putin’s actions reflect the delicate balance that nuclear-armed states must navigate.

Russia’s nuclear policy shift, including the proposed doctrinal changes related to Ukraine, signals a more assertive stance. While the threat of nuclear force may act as a deterrent, the reliance on such rhetoric could exacerbate tensions and limit diplomatic solutions. Furthermore, the international community remains divided on how best to respond to Russia’s nuclear policy, with some advocating for stronger deterrents and others urging a return to arms control negotiations to de-escalate tensions.

Putin’s recent statements and the nuclear drills underscore a complex and shifting security environment in which Russia sees nuclear preparedness as essential. His commitment to a robust yet restrained nuclear force reflects Russia’s desire to project strength without overtly inciting a nuclear arms race. However, as tensions with the West continue to simmer, the possibility of further escalation remains. Russia’s recent doctrinal changes and advanced nuclear capabilities might not lead directly to an arms race, but they signal an era of cautious recalibration in nuclear policy among major powers.

In the end, maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent while avoiding an arms race may prove to be an increasingly difficult balance to strike. Global leaders, including those in Russia, will need to consider not only the security of their nations but also the broader implications for global peace and stability.

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Avatar photo Nandita Misra, member of the BRICS Journalists Association is a YouTuber based in India. She can be reached via 'X' at @NanditaaMisra and her YouTube channel at: @letstalkwithnnditagmishra

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