Franco-German partnership erodes as EU faces new challenges

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Vijaya Laxmi Tripura
  • Update Time : Friday, October 11, 2024

For decades, the Franco-German partnership has served as the backbone of the European Union (EU), guiding the bloc through crises and fostering stability. This alliance, defined by economic cooperation and political trust, has historically positioned Germany and France as the dual engines driving European integration. However, the geopolitical landscape is changing, raising questions about the sustainability of this partnership and the future of EU leadership.

Germany, with the largest economy in Europe, has long been viewed as a kingmaker within the EU. Its economic prowess has provided it with a strong voice in European affairs. Yet, recent economic setbacks have begun to challenge this dominance. The German economy is projected to shrink by 0.2 percent in 2024, marking a significant period of stagnation after years of slow recovery. Factors contributing to this downturn include a poorly managed energy transition, a reliance on Russian energy, and increased competition from Chinese industrial exports. These challenges have raised doubts about Germany’s ability to lead Europe effectively.

Conversely, France is also grappling with economic difficulties. Its GDP growth is expected to be a mere 0.7 percent in 2024, exacerbated by high debt levels, rising interest rates, and budgetary cuts of approximately €10 billion ($10.9 billion). For the first time in history, France is borrowing at higher rates than Italy, Greece, or Spain, straining its credibility as a leading voice in EU discussions. The inability of both Germany and France to uphold EU fiscal guidelines further complicates their leadership roles and diminishes their authority on the European stage.

The contrasting energy strategies of Germany and France have played a critical role in shaping their current economic landscapes. While Germany has struggled with its energy transition, relying heavily on Russian gas before the Ukraine crisis, France has successfully navigated its own energy needs through its commitment to nuclear power. This strategic advantage has enabled France to maintain a more stable energy supply, yet it is hampered by the burden of increasing national debt.

Adding to the complexity are the diverging foreign policies of the two countries regarding critical geopolitical issues such as the Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East. This divergence has strained their partnership, leading to public disagreements and political chaos that hinder their ability to provide cohesive leadership for the EU. The traditional Franco-German axis, once a source of strength, now finds itself fractured and lacking the unity necessary to address the pressing challenges facing Europe.

As the Franco-German duo grapples with internal challenges, the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has begun to assert itself more prominently in EU governance. The Commission’s proactive stance during the COVID-19 pandemic and its role in responding to the war in Ukraine highlight its growing influence. In light of the leadership gap created by the weakened positions of France and Germany, the Commission is increasingly seen as a central authority in EU affairs, superseding national governments.

Von der Leyen’s leadership has further solidified this trend, with some analysts suggesting that she has gained the upper hand over both Macron and Scholz. As a result, there is a burgeoning discourse among EU pundits about the potential for a new phase in the EU process, one that involves transferring greater decision-making authority to Brussels. This shift could lead to the emergence of a more powerful, sovereign European president, fundamentally altering the EU’s governance structure.

In addition to the ascendance of the European Commission, the weakening of the Franco-German alliance has prompted several Eastern European nations to unite and challenge traditional power dynamics within the EU. Countries like Poland, under Donald Tusk, are investing heavily in defense and positioning themselves as key players in European security by actively supporting Ukraine. Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, has also aligned itself with Eastern European countries, advocating for a more diversified leadership structure within the EU and emphasizing the need for a strong response to geopolitical issues.

Eastern European nations, such as Estonia, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia, are pushing for greater EU involvement in defense, particularly in light of Russian aggression. Their increasing influence reflects a broader trend toward a multipolar Europe, where power is distributed more evenly among member states rather than concentrated solely in the hands of France and Germany.

This shift in dynamics suggests that the EU is at a crossroads, with the potential for a more collaborative and decentralized approach to decision-making. The prospect of a more assertive European Commission could lead to a stronger collective response to emerging challenges, reinforcing the notion that traditional power structures within the EU are being redefined.

The combination of a more dangerous global environment, increased uncertainty, and the weakening of the Franco-German partnership has created an opening for the European Commission to play a more active role in shaping EU policy. As the EU grapples with issues related to defense, economic security, and foreign policy, the question arises: will we soon witness the emergence of a powerful, sovereign European president?

The current landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for the EU. While the traditional Franco-German alliance faces obstacles, the rise of new players and the assertiveness of the European Commission may pave the way for a more dynamic and responsive EU. As member states reassess their roles and the balance of power within the bloc, the future of European governance may take on a new shape-one that reflects the complexities of a rapidly changing world.

In conclusion, the evolving power dynamics within the EU signal a pivotal moment in its history. The traditional leadership model centered around France and Germany is being challenged by emerging voices and institutions, creating a more diverse and multifaceted European landscape. As the EU navigates this transition, the implications for its future governance, decision-making, and overall stability will be closely watched by both member states and the international community.

Avatar photo Vijaya Laxmi Tripura, a research-scholar, columnist and analyst is a Special Contributor to Blitz. She lives in Cape Town, South Africa.

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