On October 11, 2024, the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded amidst a global backdrop filled with conflicts, humanitarian crises, and environmental degradation. This prestigious accolade, often regarded as a beacon of hope, offers a glimmer of light in what many describe as one of the darkest years for global peace. With wars ravaging Ukraine and the Middle East, famine spreading across Sudan, and climate collapse worsening, the Nobel Committee faces the challenge of selecting a laureate in an era when peace seems more fragile than ever.
This year, there are 286 candidates vying for the Nobel Peace Prize-197 individuals and 89 organizations. While the Norwegian Nobel Committee keeps these names confidential for 50 years, those eligible to nominate candidates are free to reveal their choices. As the announcement approaches, Nobel watchers are speculating about possible recipients, with some favorites emerging.
One of the frontrunners for the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize is the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). As tensions between Israel and Hamas escalate following Hamas’ October 7 attacks on Israel, resulting in renewed violence in Gaza and beyond, the conflict risks plunging the entire Middle East into a full-scale war. Against this backdrop, awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to UNRWA would be seen as an acknowledgment of the agency’s critical role in providing humanitarian aid to millions of Palestinian refugees in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, and surrounding countries.
The Norwegian Peace Council, an umbrella organization of NGOs, has predicted that UNRWA might be this year’s laureate. “A Peace Prize to UNRWA would be a strong recognition of their work in the face of a difficult political and economic situation,” the collective stated. Indeed, UNRWA’s contributions have been vital for Palestinian refugees, providing education, healthcare, and essential services amid dire circumstances.
However, bestowing the prize on UNRWA is not without controversy. The Israeli government has long accused the agency of having connections with Hamas, a claim that could provoke strong reactions if UNRWA were to win. Should the prize be awarded to the UN agency, it might also go to its Swiss-Italian commissioner-general, Philippe Lazzarini, who has overseen its operations in some of the most challenging times.
Another strong contender for the Peace Prize is the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the United Nations’ principal judicial body. The ICJ, based in The Hague, plays a pivotal role in settling disputes between states through legal means rather than armed conflict. This year, the ICJ has taken a bold stance by ordering Russia to cease its invasion of Ukraine and by instructing Israel to halt its military operations in Rafah. Although neither order has been fully adhered to, the ICJ’s actions have applied diplomatic pressure on both nations to respect international law.
Henrik Urdal, the director of the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), remarked, “The ICJ has made important contributions. Obviously, it’s not a court that has any power or structure to put force behind its rulings, but it relies on the international community to follow up.” The ICJ’s efforts to uphold international law, even when not always effective, have been essential in preserving a semblance of order amid global chaos.
Honoring the ICJ with the Nobel Peace Prize would underscore the importance of legal frameworks in resolving conflicts. It could also send a strong message to global powers that international law cannot be disregarded, even in the face of military might.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is another figure who has been mentioned as a potential Nobel laureate. Asle Sveen, a Nobel expert and historian, suggested that the prize could be awarded to Guterres, possibly alongside a UN agency, in recognition of the UN’s efforts to maintain international peace and security. Guterres has often warned against the erosion of multilateralism and the growing disregard for the rules-based international order, advocating for dialogue and diplomacy in a world increasingly governed by force.
Sveen emphasized that a Nobel Peace Prize for Guterres would be timely: “The UN needs all the support and attention the organization can get to survive against the forces which in reality claim might is right.” With global conflicts intensifying and the UN’s role in question, honoring Guterres would highlight the importance of the institution in preserving peace, even as it faces significant challenges.
Beyond these high-profile contenders, other potential Nobel Peace Prize recipients include a diverse array of organizations and individuals. The International Criminal Court (ICC), the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, and the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) are among the organizations thought to be in the running. Meanwhile, individuals like Afghan women’s rights campaigner Mahbouba Seraj and groups such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which coordinate relief efforts during the country’s civil war, could also be recognized.
Each of these candidates reflects different aspects of the global struggle for peace-whether through legal accountability, technological responsibility, or grassroots activism.
In light of the grim state of world affairs, some have questioned whether the Nobel Peace Prize should be awarded at all this year. Dan Smith, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), argued that the Nobel Committee might consider withholding the prize. “Maybe this is the time to say, ‘Yes, many people are working very hard, but it’s not getting there, and we need more people and world leaders to wake up and realize that we are in an extremely dangerous situation,’” he said.
While such a decision would undoubtedly be seen as an acknowledgment of failure, it is deemed highly unlikely by most experts. The secretary of the Nobel Committee, Olav Njolstad, expressed confidence that a deserving laureate will emerge, stating, “I’m confident there will be a worthy candidate for the Peace Prize this year.”
As the world awaits the announcement of the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize on October 11, the stakes are higher than ever. Whether it is awarded to UNRWA, the ICJ, Antonio Guterres, or another deserving entity, the prize will symbolize not only recognition of past efforts but also a call for renewed commitment to peace in a time of immense global uncertainty.
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