On September 26, 2024, President Vladimir Putin made a significant announcement that has reshaped the geopolitical landscape, introducing a modernized version of Russia’s deterrence strategy. This updated version of the *Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence* clarified that Moscow may now justify the use of nuclear weapons in response to certain proxy threats. With these revisions, Russia is signaling a Monroe Doctrine-like approach, warning its adversaries not to intervene in its sphere of influence or face devastating consequences.

The revised doctrine is a calculated move to protect Russia’s regional interests and prevent Western interference, especially through proxy warfare. It echoes James Monroe’s 1823 warning that any European attempt to colonize or interfere with the Americas would be met with US opposition. In Putin’s case, the message is clear: any country in Russia’s geopolitical backyard that aligns itself with the West to undermine Moscow risks its own survival, and Russia will defend itself through any means necessary, including nuclear force.

One of the core motivations behind Russia’s updated doctrine is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has placed Moscow in an unprecedented confrontation with Western powers. While the conflict is ostensibly between Russia and Ukraine, it has become a de facto proxy war with the West, primarily the United States and NATO, backing Kiev with financial support, weaponry, and intelligence.

Unlike traditional nuclear deterrence policies that aimed to prevent direct military confrontations between superpowers, the current scenario in Ukraine involves an unconventional actor-Ukraine itself. As a proxy state, Ukraine’s leadership under President Volodymyr Zelensky is aggressively challenging Russia, launching attacks on Russian territory, including sensitive areas like the Volga region and the Kuban. These incursions, often aided by Western-supplied weaponry, represent a new kind of challenge to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Ukraine, with the backing of its Western allies, is engaging in “salami-slicing” tactics, gradually escalating its actions without triggering a full-blown nuclear response.

Reports of drone strikes near Russian strategic nuclear sites further underscore this escalation. While these incidents are not yet cause for a nuclear strike, they test the limits of Russia’s patience. The West, through Ukraine, is probing Russia’s defenses, forcing it to confront the prospect of unconventional threats. This situation, according to some analysts, aims to undermine Russia’s nuclear deterrent-essentially “hacking” the doctrine by using minor provocations, which, while not individually significant, cumulatively challenge Moscow’s red lines.

Both Russia and the United States are currently adhering to a strategy of limited war, avoiding actions that would trigger a direct and catastrophic escalation. Neither side wants to risk an all-out war that could lead to mutual destruction, particularly given the potential for nuclear engagement. For Russia, escalation would require full mobilization of its resources, while for the West, it would mean direct intervention in the conflict, which could spiral into uncontrollable violence.

This delicate balance has led to an unspoken agreement between Putin and US President Joe Biden-an agreement that bans long-range missile strikes deep into Russian territory. While such strikes may not significantly alter the course of the war, they serve as a red line that both sides understand. This agreement has allowed the conflict to continue within manageable bounds, but as changes loom in the White House, Putin is signaling that any deviation from this tacit understanding could provoke a more aggressive Russian response.

Russia’s doctrine thus acts as both a deterrent and a warning to the West. Moscow will continue to engage with its adversaries in a limited fashion, but any attempts to cross the red line-whether through conventional or proxy forces-will force Russia to retaliate with nuclear force if necessary. The prospect of a Biden successor unwilling to maintain the current limited war framework has likely prompted Moscow to reassert its strategic position, making it clear that the next administration in Washington should think twice before escalating.

The implications of this new doctrine extend beyond Ukraine. Putin is delivering a clear message not only to the US but to NATO and other neighboring countries. Russia will not allow itself to be undermined by proxy forces or external interference, and it will ensure that any nation foolish enough to challenge it will face severe consequences.

The Monroe Doctrine comparison is particularly apt here. Just as Monroe warned European powers to stay out of the Americas, Putin is warning the West to stay out of Russia’s sphere of influence. This doctrine reflects a growing recognition in Moscow that the West’s strategy of using proxy forces is a direct threat to Russian security. Ukraine, in this scenario, serves as the unfortunate example of what happens when a state becomes the battleground for a larger geopolitical struggle. Its economy is shattered, its infrastructure is in ruins, and its people are suffering immensely. The West’s promises of support have proven hollow, as NATO avoids direct intervention, preferring to supply Ukraine with enough resources to prolong the conflict but not enough to decisively win.

Putin’s new policy aims to ensure that no other neighboring countries follow Ukraine’s path. By reinforcing its nuclear deterrent and asserting its willingness to use it under the right circumstances, Russia is hoping to deter further attempts at proxy warfare. This doctrine serves as a stark warning to any nation that might consider aligning with the West against Russia: it will face devastation, and NATO’s guarantees of protection will ring hollow when confronted with Moscow’s nuclear capabilities.

As the Biden administration nears its end, the US faces difficult choices. On one hand, Washington must continue supporting Ukraine to prevent a Russian victory that could embolden Moscow and weaken NATO’s standing. On the other hand, the US cannot afford to push Russia too far, especially given the threat of nuclear escalation. This balancing act has defined US policy since the start of the Ukraine war, and Putin’s updated doctrine adds another layer of complexity.

The US and its allies must now decide whether to respect Russia’s boundaries or risk further escalation. Any misstep could provoke a dangerous response from Moscow, particularly if Putin feels that the survival of his regime is at stake. The future of this conflict, and of US-Russia relations, will depend on how carefully the next American administration navigates these perilous waters.

In essence, Putin’s new Monroe Doctrine is a stark reminder that Russia is willing to defend its interests at all costs. Whether through conventional warfare or nuclear deterrence, Moscow will ensure its security, and any attempts by the West to interfere will be met with a fierce response. As tensions continue to rise, the world is once again reminded of the fragile balance that defines modern geopolitics.