India’s strategic defense took a significant leap forward late last month with the commissioning of its second nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine, INS Arighaat. This development, as the Indian government asserts, is a step toward bolstering its nuclear deterrent capabilities amid the dual geopolitical challenges posed by China and Pakistan. However, despite this advancement, India remains in a race to close the gap with China, whose People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) continues to dominate the maritime balance in the region with its superior naval strength and technological capabilities.

INS Arighaat, dubbed “Destroyer of the Enemy” in Sanskrit, was formally inducted into the Indian Navy on August 29, 2024, at the Visakhapatnam naval base. This submarine represents a vital component of India’s nuclear triad, designed to provide a second-strike capability, which refers to the ability to retaliate in the event of a nuclear attack. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, speaking at the commissioning ceremony, emphasized that Arighaat would “help in establishing strategic balance” in a region marked by rising tensions between New Delhi, Beijing, and Islamabad.

India’s nuclear deterrence strategy heavily relies on ensuring survivability. Submarines like Arighaat  are crucial in this respect, as they provide a concealed, mobile platform from which nuclear weapons can be launched. This mobility and concealment enhance their survivability compared to land-based nuclear weapons, making them a core part of a credible second-strike capability.

However, India’s two nuclear-capable submarines-Arighaat and its predecessor, INS Arihant- face significant limitations, especially when compared to China’s Jin-class submarines, which are the backbone of China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent. Each of China’s six Jin-class submarines can carry 12 ballistic missiles with a range of at least 8,000 kilometers (4,970 miles), and many of these missiles are capable of carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), which allow a single missile to strike several targets. In contrast, Arighaat and Arihant carry K-15 Sagarika ballistic missiles with an estimated range of only 750 kilometers (466 miles), limiting their reach and strategic impact.

While the commissioning of *Arighaat* is a step forward, it does not shift the strategic balance in the Indian Ocean in India’s favor. China’s growing naval capabilities continue to overshadow India’s advances. The Chinese Navy is not only the largest in the world in terms of vessel count but also more technologically advanced, especially when it comes to nuclear-powered submarines.

China’s six Jin-class submarines, each equipped with advanced ballistic missile capabilities, pose a serious challenge to India’s maritime strategy. These submarines can launch missiles from far deeper and more secure locations, such as the South China Sea, and can potentially strike targets across Asia, Europe, and North America. This places China’s sea-based nuclear deterrent in a class of its own, leaving India to play catch-up.

As Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, noted, the limited range of India’s K-15 missiles makes it difficult for Arighaat to effectively target key Chinese locations from the safety of India’s coastal waters. To address this, India is developing larger submarines capable of carrying more missiles with a significantly increased range, possibly extending up to 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles). However, these future submarines may take years to materialize.

The commissioning of Arighaat holds significant symbolic importance for India’s military. It places India among the elite group of nations with nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarines, a club that includes the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. For India, possessing such submarines is not just about defense but also about being recognized as a major global power.

According to Tom Shugart, a former US Navy submarine commander and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs) are seen as the ultimate status symbol for any navy. All permanent UN Security Council members maintain SSBN fleets, and their deployment signals both technological prowess and strategic deterrence capability. Shugart emphasizes that while two SSBNs may not be enough to ensure one is always operational, it marks a substantial step toward India’s goal of having a credible second-strike capability.

Given the complex nature of SSBN maintenance and operations, having only two vessels may not be sufficient to guarantee that one is always on patrol. Nuclear-powered submarines require frequent refitting and maintenance, often for extended periods. In the US Navy, for instance, Ohio-class SSBNs spend 35 days in port for every 77 days they spend at sea. For India to maintain a continuous at-sea deterrence posture, it would need at least four submarines, like those in the navies of France and the United Kingdom.

India has ambitious plans to expand its submarine fleet to better counter threats from both China and Pakistan. Currently, India is working on building bigger submarines with greater firepower and longer-range missiles, which would allow it to target deeper into Chinese territory. Analysts predict that by the time India’s third and fourth SSBNs are commissioned, they will carry missiles with a range of up to 12,000 kilometers (7,500 miles), vastly increasing their strategic utility.

However, as history has shown, the development of these submarines may take time. Arighaat itself took nearly seven years to transition from its launch to its commissioning. If similar timelines apply to future submarines, India may have to wait until the 2030s before it can truly claim a robust sea-based nuclear deterrent.

India’s push to enhance its second-strike capability through its SSBN fleet is primarily driven by its concerns over China, but Pakistan is also a factor. Pakistan, a longtime rival of India, is modernizing its own submarine fleet, with Chinese-designed Type 039B attack submarines on order. This modernization, combined with China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean, has spurred India to invest heavily in its submarine force.

According to Abhijit Singh, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, India’s strategic calculus must account for the increasing naval collaboration between China and Pakistan. China remains one of Pakistan’s key military and economic allies, and their cooperation in naval matters is seen as a direct challenge to India’s dominance in the Indian Ocean.

India’s commissioning of INS Arighaat marks a critical step in its quest to develop a credible second-strike nuclear deterrent. However, the road ahead remains challenging, with China’s superior naval capabilities and Pakistan’s modernization efforts pushing India to accelerate its own development. The commissioning of more advanced SSBNs and longer-range missiles will be crucial if India hopes to maintain a strategic balance in the region. While India’s nuclear deterrence strategy remains in its infancy compared to China’s, its ambitions are clear, and the country is poised to make significant strides in the coming years.

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