In a strategic shift driven by the geopolitical realities of the Ukraine war, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz embarks on his inaugural trip to Central Asia. Scholz’s visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two countries historically peripheral to Berlin’s foreign policy, mark a pivotal moment in Germany’s search for new energy sources and markets. This tour is a clear signal that Germany is realigning its economic and energy priorities as it adapts to the consequences of sanctions on Russia and the broader European Union strategy to reduce dependency on Russian resources.

The shift to Central Asia reflects a broader European strategy to diversify its energy sources in response to the Ukraine conflict, which severed Europe’s long-standing reliance on Russian oil and gas. Kazakhstan, with its abundant energy reserves, has already emerged as a key partner in this evolving energy dynamic. In 2022, Kazakh crude oil began flowing through the Druzhba pipeline to Germany, a significant development in the region’s energy landscape. The pipeline had previously been used exclusively for Russian oil, but sanctions and the political fallout of the war in Ukraine necessitated a change. This move marked “a completely new direction in bilateral cooperation,” according to a Kazakh government official, underscoring the importance of this partnership for both nations.

Kazakhstan’s oil is already making a tangible impact on Germany’s energy supply. In 2023, the country exported 8.5 million tons of oil to Germany, accounting for 11.7% of Germany’s total oil imports, a significant increase from the 6.5 million tons prior to the Ukraine war. These figures cement Kazakhstan’s position as Germany’s third-largest oil supplier, after Norway and the United States, according to data from Germany’s Federal Statistics Office. Scholz’s visit aims to build upon this foundation, as both nations explore new avenues for cooperation in sectors beyond oil.

Beyond crude oil, Kazakhstan’s energy potential is vast, with over two trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves. As Germany seeks to transition to cleaner forms of energy, Kazakhstan’s vast open spaces, sun-drenched plains, and wind-swept regions provide fertile ground for renewable energy projects. A key area of focus during Scholz’s visit will be hydrogen, a crucial component in Germany’s long-term strategy for energy security and decarbonization.

One of the most ambitious projects in the region is being developed by Germany-based SVEVIND Energy Group in Kazakhstan’s southwestern Mangystau region. The company is constructing what it describes as one of the world’s largest green hydrogen projects, with a planned renewable power capacity of 40 gigawatts. Such projects signal the potential for Kazakhstan to become a major player in the global hydrogen market, and Scholz’s visit could help solidify Germany’s role as a primary investor in this emerging industry.

Eduard Kinsbruner, Central Asia regional director at the German Eastern Business Association, notes that many German companies, which had traditionally operated in Russia, have shifted their focus to Central Asia. Negotiations have been ongoing in sectors such as chemicals, skilled labor, renewable energy, logistics, and education, with several major contracts expected to be signed during Scholz’s visit.

The timing of Scholz’s visit is significant, not only for Germany but also for Central Asia, a region that has often been overlooked in European foreign policy. Stefan Meister, an expert on Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, acknowledges that “because of the regimes and the political system, Central Asia wasn’t a top priority for Germany.” However, the war in Ukraine has “fundamentally changed this dynamic,” pushing Berlin to re-evaluate its partnerships in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

Kazakhstan, in particular, has seen its trade with Germany soar since the start of the war. Bilateral trade between the two countries nearly doubled in 2022, with turnover rising by 89.5 percent, according to data from the German Eastern Business Association. German investments in Kazakhstan have also surged, increasing by 64 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year, reflecting growing confidence in the region’s economic potential.

Germany is not the only Western power making moves in Central Asia. French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President Charles Michel have both visited the region in recent months, signaling a broader European interest in Central Asia as an alternative to traditional energy suppliers like Russia.

While Kazakhstan presents a promising alternative for Germany, there are still significant challenges that Scholz must navigate. Kazakhstan remains closely linked to Russia, both historically and geographically. The Druzhba pipeline, for example, which now transports Kazakh oil to Germany, runs through Russian territory. This means that despite efforts to reduce reliance on Moscow, Germany and Kazakhstan must continue to work within a framework that still involves Russia to some degree.

Kazakhstan has also maintained a neutral stance in the Ukraine conflict, avoiding taking sides. This neutrality reflects the delicate balancing act that Central Asian countries must perform as they navigate relationships with both Russia and the West.

Additionally, Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure remains a relic of its Soviet past. The country’s outdated grid and complex bureaucracy could pose significant hurdles to the rapid expansion of renewable energy projects. As Thomas O’Donnell, an energy expert at Berlin’s Free University, points out, “If it [renewables expansion] is complicated in Germany, it’s much more complicated in a country like Kazakhstan.” Scholz’s visit, therefore, is as much about securing energy supplies as it is about overcoming these structural obstacles.

Despite these challenges, the potential for deepening ties between Germany and Kazakhstan is immense. A German government official, speaking ahead of the trip, highlighted the long-term importance of Kazakhstan in Germany’s energy strategy: “We will need gas for two more decades. The tenders for new gas power plants (in Germany), which will all be hydrogen-ready, are currently in their final stages. This means they will need to get gas from somewhere.”

Scholz’s visit to Central Asia signals a new chapter in Germany’s foreign policy, one that reflects the shifting geopolitical and economic realities of the post-Ukraine war world. As Germany seeks to secure its energy future and diversify its global partnerships, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are poised to become key players in Berlin’s strategy for the decades ahead. Whether it’s through oil, natural gas, or hydrogen, Central Asia’s energy resources could play a crucial role in Germany’s transition away from Russian energy dependency and towards a more diversified, sustainable future.

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