As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, foreign policymakers in Washington continue to prioritize the conflict, viewing it as a critical issue for the stability of Europe and the global order. Yet, for the average American voter, the war remains a distant concern, overshadowed by more immediate domestic challenges like inflation, immigration, and crime. This disconnect is evident in recent polling, which reveals a growing divergence between public sympathy for Ukraine and the actual importance voters assign to the conflict in the upcoming presidential election.

Despite the war’s fading prominence among voters, Americans have largely maintained their sympathy for Ukraine. A survey by the University of Maryland found that 62 percent of Americans sympathize more with Ukraine than with Russia, a sentiment shared across both major political parties. A majority of Democrats (76 percent) and Republicans (58 percent) express solidarity with Ukraine, underscoring the broad public disapproval of Russia’s invasion.

However, this sympathy does not necessarily translate into a consensus on US policy toward the war. While Americans continue to support Ukraine in principle, their views on the extent of US involvement vary significantly, particularly along partisan lines.

One of the key drivers of this divide is the difference in how Republicans and Democrats perceive the threat posed by Russia’s invasion. In a July 2024 poll conducted by the Pew Research Center, only 33 percent of Americans said that the war in Ukraine constituted a “major threat” to US interests, a notable decline from earlier in the conflict. The poll revealed a clear partisan divide: 45 percent of Democrats viewed Russia’s actions as a major threat to the United States, compared to just 26 percent of Republicans.

This variance in threat perception is significant, as it shapes opinions on whether the US has a responsibility to assist Ukraine. Among Democrats, 63 percent believe that the US should help Ukraine defend itself, while 62 percent of Republicans believe the opposite-that the US does not have such an obligation.

These partisan divides also manifest in attitudes toward the level of aid the US provides to Ukraine. According to the same Pew poll, 36 percent of Democrats said that the current level of US aid was “about right,” with another 27 percent arguing that the US should provide more. In contrast, 47 percent of Republicans said that the US was providing too much aid, while only 18 percent felt the current level was appropriate.

These findings were mirrored in a University of Maryland poll, which found that 63 percent of Democrats wanted the US to “stay the course” in supporting Ukraine, even if it meant prolonged engagement. Among Republicans, however, only 37 percent expressed similar sentiments, with a significant portion (52 percent) arguing that the US was already offering too much financial assistance to Kyiv.

The sharp contrast in public opinion on Ukraine is also reflected in the positions of the presidential candidates. As the current vice president and the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris has been a strong advocate for continued US support for Ukraine. In her public statements, Harris has echoed the Biden administration’s stance that Ukraine must be assisted as it defends itself against Russian aggression. She has also emphasized the importance of securing a peace agreement that includes Ukraine’s input and respects its sovereignty.

On the Republican side, former President Donald Trump has taken a different approach. Trump has promised to end the war “immediately” if elected but has provided few details on how he would achieve this goal. His criticism of the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict centers on the financial burden of US aid to Ukraine, which he believes is excessive. Trump has also made headlines for his positive remarks about Russian President Vladimir Putin, a stance that has raised concerns about how a second Trump administration would manage the US-Russia relationship.

Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has adopted an even more hardline position, opposing US assistance to Ukraine outright. Vance has argued that it is not in the United States’ best interest to fund what he sees as a “never-ending war” and has expressed doubts about Ukraine’s ability to regain control of its occupied territories. In his view, Washington should shift its focus to countering China, which he views as a more significant geopolitical threat.

While the war in Ukraine remains a critical issue for policymakers in Washington, it is unlikely to be a major factor in the Nov. 5 presidential election. Polling consistently shows that foreign policy, in general, ranks low on voters’ list of priorities. Instead, Americans are more concerned with pressing domestic issues like the economy, inflation, healthcare, and immigration.

Even within the realm of foreign policy, the war in Ukraine does not top the list of concerns. Polls indicate that voters are more focused on the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, the rise of China as a global competitor, and the threat of international terrorism. These issues are likely to play a more significant role in shaping voter preferences in the election than the war in Ukraine, despite its importance to global security.

Although the war may not be a central issue in the election, its outcome will have profound implications for Ukraine and the broader international community. A second term for Biden, or a Harris presidency, would likely mean continued, albeit measured, support for Ukraine, with an emphasis on diplomacy and international coordination. On the other hand, a Trump victory could lead to a dramatic shift in US policy, potentially resulting in a reduction or even cessation of American aid to Kyiv.

For Ukraine, the stakes are high. While the war may not resonate as strongly with American voters as domestic issues, the level of US support in the coming years will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of the conflict. The outcome of the 2024 election, therefore, will play a crucial role in shaping Ukraine’s future and the broader geopolitical landscape in Europe.

While Americans remain sympathetic to Ukraine, the war is unlikely to be a decisive issue in the 2024 presidential election. The partisan divides on foreign policy, and particularly on the extent of US involvement in Ukraine, reflect broader ideological differences between the parties. However, for Ukraine, the stakes are immense, and the outcome of the election will have a significant impact on the level of American support in the coming years.

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