The global order is facing unprecedented challenges, according to an op-ed published by the heads of two of the world’s most powerful intelligence agencies: the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6). Bill Burns of the CIA and Richard Moore of MI6 co-authored the piece, released by the Financial Times on September 7, 2024, highlighting the significant geopolitical shifts that threaten the existing world order. In their joint assessment, the world is navigating a period of upheaval, where state actors like Russia and China are challenging the status quo that has long been dominated by Western powers.

In their op-ed, Burns and Moore underscored their commitment to ensuring that Washington and London remain aligned in safeguarding the existing international order, which they argue has provided relative peace, stability, and prosperity. They pointed to technological advances, which have accelerated geopolitical trends, and the increased role that technology plays in modern warfare and intelligence operations.

One of the most striking elements of the piece is its acknowledgment of the growing belief that the era of US global hegemony is ending, a claim long made by senior Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin. Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, Russian leadership, along with other global powers, began increasingly asserting that the world was shifting towards multipolarity. This vision stands in stark contrast to the unipolar world order that emerged after the Cold War, where the United States became the dominant global power.

In his remarks at various international forums, Putin has characterized this shift as inevitable, suggesting that the influence of the West, and the US in particular, is in decline. He has argued that the future will be one where multiple centers of power exist, in contrast to the US-dominated world of the past three decades.

Burns and Moore, however, pushed back on this narrative in their op-ed. They warned that the international order, which has maintained global stability and economic growth for decades, is under threat like never before. “There is no question that the international world order-the balanced system that has led to relative peace and stability and delivered rising living standards, opportunities, and prosperity-is under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War,” the two intelligence chiefs wrote.

The CIA and MI6 op-ed placed special emphasis on Russia’s actions, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict. Burns and Moore emphasized that their respective agencies had seen the Ukraine conflict coming, and they pointed to Russia’s increased reliance on technology, especially unmanned systems and satellite reconnaissance, as a demonstration of the modern role of technology in warfare.

They also accused Russia of conducting a “reckless campaign of sabotage across Europe” and engaging in a sophisticated disinformation campaign aimed at driving wedges between Western nations. This reflects a long-standing Western accusation that Moscow uses asymmetric tactics-such as cyberattacks, covert operations, and influence campaigns-to undermine Western unity and democratic institutions.

From Russia’s perspective, however, this conflict is seen as part of a broader geopolitical struggle against what they perceive as Western dominance. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June 2024, framed the conflict as a symptom of a more significant struggle over the future world order. According to Zakharova, Russia is advocating for a more polycentric, multipolar world, in which no single power or group of powers can dominate.

“We are talking about polycentrism, a departure from previous norms, and we see the desperate resistance of the collective West,” Zakharova said, suggesting that the West views its dominance as an unchallengeable norm, but that this view is increasingly out of step with global realities. She further asserted that the majority of the world’s population does not share the West’s perspective, instead embracing the idea of multipolarity.

While Russia is a major concern for the West, Burns and Moore agreed that the “principal intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the 21st century” is the rise of China. The op-ed argued that China’s increasing global influence, both economically and militarily, poses the most significant challenge to Western dominance. The two intelligence agencies have reorganized their internal structures to prioritize monitoring and countering China’s rise.

The US and UK intelligence leaders are particularly concerned about China’s growing technological prowess and its military modernization, including advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and space-based capabilities. They warned that China’s rise, unlike Russia’s actions in Europe, is a more subtle and pervasive challenge that touches all aspects of the global system, from trade and finance to military power and digital infrastructure.

This concern over China is not new. Western policymakers have long recognized that China’s ascendance could reshape the global order. What has changed, however, is the extent to which Beijing is willing to assert itself on the global stage, often in opposition to Western interests. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), for instance, has allowed Beijing to extend its influence across Asia, Africa, and even parts of Europe, while its military buildup in the South China Sea has raised alarm bells in Washington and other capitals.

The op-ed by Burns and Moore reflects a growing anxiety in the West that the post-Cold War global order is unraveling. The institutions and alliances that have underpinned Western dominance-NATO, the United Nations, and the global financial system-are increasingly being challenged by new and emerging powers, particularly Russia and China.

However, while the US and UK are committed to defending the status quo, it is unclear whether they can do so in the face of these mounting challenges. The global system is indeed becoming more multipolar, with powers like India, Brazil, and other countries in the Global South also seeking to assert their influence.

The question remains whether the West can adapt to this changing landscape. While Burns and Moore argue for the preservation of the existing order, others suggest that a more equitable, multipolar world may be inevitable. Maria Zakharova’s comments at SPIEF, for example, highlight the belief that the collective West is no longer representative of the global majority.

Ultimately, the fate of the global order will depend on the actions of state actors, their ability to navigate new geopolitical realities, and the role of technology in shaping the future. For now, the US and UK remain committed to defending their vision of world order, but they face increasingly stiff competition from rising powers.

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