Ukraine may lose nearly $6 billion in US military aid unless Washington finds a way to allocate or secure these funds by the end of September. The aid, which comes from the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), is part of the broader $61 billion aid package that was approved in April 2023 to support Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, told Reuters. However, concerns in Washington about its own depleted weapons stockpiles have caused delays in disbursement, leading to the risk of unspent funds being lost when the fiscal year ends on September 30, 2024.

The PDA has been a key tool in providing swift military assistance to Ukraine, allowing the US president to authorize the immediate transfer of military supplies and services from US stockpiles without requiring prior approval from Congress. For fiscal year 2024 (FY2024), the cap on PDA spending stands at $7.8 billion, but Reuters reported that only a small portion of that amount has been utilized so far, leaving approximately $6 billion at risk of being lost.

As Ukraine continues to depend heavily on Western military aid to counter Russian forces, the potential loss of these funds is causing anxiety among Ukrainian officials and advocacy groups alike. With just a few weeks remaining before the expiration date, President Joe Biden’s administration has been holding urgent talks with Congress to find a way to preserve the money for FY2025.

One of the solutions being discussed is tying the unspent PDA funds to a continuing resolution. A continuing resolution is a temporary funding measure that Congress can use at the end of the fiscal year to maintain government operations and extend spending authority into the next fiscal year. This move would allow the Biden administration to keep the funds available for Ukraine’s military aid in the new fiscal year without technically letting the money expire.

Another potential strategy involves making a large-scale PDA allocation before September 30, 2024. By committing the funds before the end of FY2024, the administration could ensure that the money has been legally spent, even if the actual disbursement or delivery of military equipment is delayed.

Despite these possible solutions, it remains unclear why only a fraction of the PDA has been spent so far. According to sources cited by Reuters, the slow pace of aid this fiscal year might stem from concerns within the Pentagon and other US agencies about the depletion of America’s own military stockpiles. The Biden administration has been hesitant to empty its reserves, given rising geopolitical tensions across the globe and potential threats to US national security.

Ukraine advocacy groups in the US have responded swiftly to the Reuters report, urging the Biden administration and Congress to act immediately to prevent the funds from expiring. These groups have underscored the potential humanitarian consequences of the funding shortfall, warning that a lack of military aid could leave Ukrainian cities vulnerable to further Russian attacks, causing mass displacement and an intensifying refugee crisis.

“Without this funding, Ukrainian cities may become depopulated,” one advocacy group said, emphasizing the potential for a refugee crisis that could impact not only Europe but also the US Another organization pointed out that if Ukraine were to fall, NATO would be burdened with protecting its four member states that share borders with Ukraine-Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. Such a scenario would place additional strain on the Western alliance, with significant security and economic implications for the entire region.

Since the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, Washington has provided approximately $175 billion in aid and military assistance to Kiev. This assistance has included weapons, ammunition, intelligence, logistical support, and training, all of which have played a crucial role in helping Ukraine resist Russian advances.

The PDA mechanism, in particular, has been instrumental in speeding up military aid. The authority allows the US to bypass traditional bureaucratic processes and deliver weapons directly from its existing stocks. However, as the conflict drags on, US officials have raised concerns that the country’s military reserves are running low, prompting the administration to reevaluate how quickly and how much it can continue to send to Ukraine.

Military experts have pointed out that even though Washington has committed large sums of money and resources to Ukraine, the process of delivering weapons has often been slow. Delays have been attributed to logistical challenges, procurement issues, and now, worries about the depletion of US weapons stockpiles.

For its part, Moscow has repeatedly warned the US and other Western nations that providing military aid to Ukraine will only prolong the conflict and lead to further devastation. Russian officials have argued that the flow of Western arms into Ukraine escalates the situation, while not altering the eventual outcome of the war. Moscow maintains that Ukraine cannot achieve a military victory through Western support alone and that the continuation of the conflict only increases the suffering of the Ukrainian people.

The Kremlin has also emphasized that supplying weapons to Ukraine effectively makes Western nations, including the US, direct participants in the fighting. This rhetoric has been used to justify further military action on Russia’s part, as well as to frame its invasion of Ukraine as a defensive operation against NATO encroachment.

As the September 30 deadline approaches, the Biden administration faces a crucial decision regarding how to ensure that Ukraine continues receiving the military aid it needs to defend itself against Russia. The stakes are high, not only for Ukraine but also for the broader geopolitical landscape. Failure to secure the unspent $6 billion could significantly weaken Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances and could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in the region.

Moreover, the depletion of US military stockpiles adds another layer of complexity to Washington’s foreign policy. While aiding Ukraine remains a top priority, US officials must also balance this with the need to maintain sufficient military resources for other potential conflicts and threats. The decisions made in the coming weeks will have far-reaching consequences for both Ukraine’s future and the US’s role on the global stage.

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