The visit of US National Security Advisor (NSA) Jake Sullivan to China from August 27 to 29, 2024, marks a critical moment in the ongoing dialogue between two of the world’s most influential nations. Invited by Wang Yi, a Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, Sullivan’s trip carries significant weight as the first visit by a US NSA to China in eight years. It also highlights the deepening complexities and challenges in China-US relations.
The visit is set against a backdrop of a strategic communication channel between China’s top foreign affairs official and the US NSA, a channel that has been instrumental in managing bilateral ties over the past year and a half. As a senior US official noted, “Each time the two have met, they have typically spent about 10 to 12 hours… We expect to follow the same format in Beijing.” This extensive engagement underscores the importance both sides place on maintaining open lines of communication, especially at a time when the bilateral relationship is at a critical juncture.
Sullivan’s visit to China is not merely a diplomatic courtesy; it is a reflection of the complex dynamics at play in China-US relations. The strategic communication between the two sides is expected to cover a wide range of issues, including sensitive bilateral matters, major international and regional hotspots, and the broader context of China-US relations.
This visit is particularly noteworthy as it follows the consensus reached by the two heads of state in San Francisco, marking an important step in implementing their agreements. It also serves as a testament to the crucial role that the strategic communication channel between China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and the US NSA continues to play in stabilizing the relationship.
The positive outcomes achieved through this channel over the past 18 months have set certain expectations for Sullivan’s visit. Both China and the US are keen on halting the downward trend in their relations and stabilizing the situation. On one hand, more than 20 dialogue and communication mechanisms have been established or resumed between the two countries, covering diplomacy, finance, law enforcement, climate change, and military communication. These mechanisms have helped to strengthen the foundation for stable China-US relations.
On the other hand, the US has continued its actions to contain and suppress China, eroding the hard-earned consensus and mutual trust between the two nations. The US’s actions, such as adding Chinese entities to its export control list over alleged Russia-related issues and reports of high-ranking officials from Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party planning a “secret visit to the US,” have only added to the tension. These actions highlight the inconsistency between the US’s words and deeds, creating obstacles to achieving meaningful progress in the relationship.
The importance of maintaining strategic communication channels cannot be overstated. These channels are crucial for ensuring a stable atmosphere in bilateral relations, clarifying misunderstandings, and avoiding misjudgments on major issues. As Sullivan’s visit unfolds, the focus will be on whether the two sides can establish a correct strategic understanding and actively explore the right way for the two countries to coexist.
The challenges in US-China relations are multifaceted. They include issues related to national security, economic activities, the Taiwan question, development rights, and China’s strategic security. China’s invitation to Sullivan to visit reflects a responsible and constructive attitude toward the relationship, acknowledging the difficulties and challenges while remaining hopeful and committed to stabilizing the situation.
However, stabilizing China-US relations requires more than just a shared willingness to do so. It demands concrete actions and a fundamental change in the US’s perception and strategic positioning toward China. The politicization and securitization of economic and trade issues, interference in the South China Sea, and the obstruction of normal bilateral exchanges through visas and other means are all areas where the US needs to reassess its approach.
The path forward for China-US relations will depend largely on the outcomes of this strategic communication. Sullivan, as the NSA to the US president, bears a significant responsibility in this regard. His ability to “know how to listen” will be crucial in achieving positive results from the talks. As the Chinese side is likely to emphasize, the issue of strategic cognition is the first button that must be fastened in China-US relations. Many of the current problems stem from America’s incorrect perception of China.
For Sullivan’s first visit to China, truly listening to and understanding Beijing’s concerns, and making a genuine effort to establish the correct strategic understanding between the two nations, should be key benchmarks for evaluating the success of his trip. The development of China-US relations over the past half-century has shown that communication and dialogue are far preferable to conflict and confrontation. The more comprehensive the dialogue, the more likely it is that bilateral relations will stabilize.
Jake Sullivan’s visit to China comes at a pivotal moment in China-US relations. The stakes are high, and the challenges are significant. Both sides have much to gain from successful strategic communication, but it will require a concerted effort to bridge the gap between words and actions. As the two sides engage in what is expected to be extensive and in-depth discussions, the world will be watching closely to see whether this visit can help stabilize one of the most important bilateral relationships of our time.
Ultimately, the success of this visit will depend on whether the US can align its actions with its stated desire for stable China-US relations and whether both sides can establish a correct and constructive strategic understanding. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but with careful and sincere dialogue, there is hope for a more stable and cooperative future.
