Central Asia, a region historically defined by external influences and geopolitical maneuvering, is now witnessing a significant shift in its approach to security and cooperation. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has recently called for enhanced defense collaboration among the Central Asian countries-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan-collectively known as the C5. This initiative, aimed at creating a regional security architecture, marks a pivotal moment in the region’s history, reflecting both a response to the evolving global order and a desire to assert a more independent path.
In a detailed op-ed, President Tokayev highlighted the complex and persistent military-political challenges that surround Central Asia. He emphasized the urgent need for closer defense collaboration among the C5, advocating for the development of a regional security architecture. Tokayev’s vision includes the creation of a catalog of security risks specific to Central Asia and the formulation of measures to prevent them. His proposal is not merely about defense; it is about establishing a comprehensive regional security space that can address both traditional and emerging threats.
Tokayev’s initiative is particularly noteworthy in the context of Central Asia’s historical ties with external powers like Russia and China. For decades, the region has had stronger relationships with these external actors than with its neighbors. However, this new vision seeks to reverse that trend, fostering stronger intra-regional ties and reducing reliance on outside powers.
The timing of Tokayev’s proposal is significant. It comes at a time when international relations are increasingly polarized, with major powers like the United States, China, and Russia competing for influence in various regions, including Central Asia. Tokayev and other Central Asian leaders have expressed a desire to remain neutral and positive in this polarized environment, working with all sides while avoiding entanglement in superpower rivalries.
This neutrality is not just a diplomatic stance; it is a strategic necessity for the C5. Central Asia’s landlocked geography, coupled with its economic dependence on external trade routes, makes it vulnerable to the fallout from geopolitical conflicts. By promoting regional cooperation and reducing dependency on any single external power, Tokayev’s vision aims to safeguard the region’s sovereignty and stability.
An interesting aspect of Tokayev’s vision is the emphasis on collaboration with similarly independent midsize players, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Last year, the C5 established strategic cooperation with the GCC, signaling a shared interest in collective security and regional stability. The growing ties between Central Asia and the GCC reflect a broader trend of regional powers seeking to build alliances that are not overly dependent on the traditional global powers.
The GCC, which released its first regional security vision in March, has stressed the importance of collective defense in maintaining regional security. Like Central Asia, the GCC is keen to avoid polarization and confrontation, focusing instead on cooperation with like-minded nations. This alignment of interests suggests that future C5-GCC summits, such as the one planned in Samarkand next year, could lead to deeper security cooperation between the two regions.
The response to Tokayev’s proposal has been largely positive within Central Asia. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has been particularly supportive. Since Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power in 2016, Uzbekistan has pursued a policy of replacing animosity and suspicion with trust and cooperation among its neighbors. Former Uzbek foreign minister and presidential adviser Abdulaziz Kamilov recently wrote about Uzbekistan’s responsibility for the future of Central Asia, describing its commitment to fostering regional unity. Given this context, Uzbekistan’s support for Kazakhstan’s proposal is unsurprising.
Azerbaijan, though not part of Central Asia, has also expressed support for the proposal, particularly emphasizing its collective defense aspects. This endorsement highlights the potential for broader regional cooperation beyond the C5, potentially involving other countries with shared security concerns.
However, not all reactions have been positive. Some commentary from outside the region has dismissed Tokayev’s proposal as a Western ploy, suggesting that the initiative is an attempt to weaken Russia’s influence in Central Asia. Such criticisms, however, overlook the genuine concerns of Central Asian leaders about regional security and their desire to assert greater independence in their foreign policies.
Central Asia’s move toward greater regional cooperation is also a response to changing dynamics in its relationships with external powers. Russia, which has long been the dominant influence in Central Asia, has seen its position weakened by the war in Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions. In 2023, China overtook Russia as the region’s top trade partner, reflecting a shift in economic ties. The United States has also increased its engagement with the region, with Kazakhstan emerging as America’s top economic partner in Central Asia.
Despite these shifts, Central Asian countries have been careful to maintain a balance in their foreign relations. They have not taken sides in the Ukraine conflict, with Tokayev even publicly disagreeing with Putin during the 2022 St. Petersburg Economic Forum. This diplomatic balancing act underscores the importance of Tokayev’s proposal for a regional security architecture that is independent of external pressures.
Kazakhstan’s call for increased defense cooperation among the C5 represents a significant step toward a more independent and secure Central Asia. By fostering closer ties within the region and reducing reliance on external powers, Tokayev’s vision aims to safeguard the sovereignty and stability of the Central Asian states in an increasingly polarized world. The support from regional players like Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, as well as the alignment with the GCC’s security vision, suggests that this initiative could lead to a new era of regional cooperation in Central Asia.
As the region continues to navigate the challenges of the 21st century, the success of this new security architecture will depend on the willingness of the Central Asian countries to collaborate and the ability of their leaders to balance regional and global interests. If successful, Tokayev’s vision could serve as a model for other regions facing similar challenges, demonstrating the power of regional unity in an increasingly fragmented world.
