As the United States approaches its 2024 presidential election, the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) is meticulously evaluating its strategies to navigate the uncertain political landscape that will ensue. The CPC perceives that the overarching consensus in Washington, irrespective of party lines, is to curtail China’s ascent and influence on the global stage. While the Democrats and Republicans may differ in their methods and timing, their common objective to contain China remains clear to Chinese leaders.
The continuity in the US’s approach toward China, spanning both the Trump and Biden administrations, underscores this consensus. President Joe Biden has upheld many of the Trump-era policies, including tariffs and technological restrictions, while enhancing alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India to counter China’s influence. This bipartisan stance reinforces Beijing’s belief that US containment efforts will persist regardless of who wins the November election.
Despite this shared objective, China does not view the Democratic and Republican parties as indistinguishable. The CPC appears to be bracing for the possibility of a second Trump presidency, given his slight edge in the polls. The anticipation of Trump’s return has prompted Chinese leaders to strategize for the unique challenges his administration might present, distinct from those of the current Biden administration.
Trump’s potential re-election is particularly concerning for Beijing. During his previous term, Trump’s policies were marked by unpredictability and aggressive rhetoric, including the imposition of extensive tariffs and threats of further economic decoupling. The CPC’s leaders fear that another Trump administration could escalate these measures, significantly impacting China’s economy, which is already struggling to recover from the severe lockdowns imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In response, China has been fortifying its domestic consumer markets and seeking to diversify its foreign trade partners. This strategic pivot aims to reduce reliance on the US market, thereby mitigating the impact of potential American economic aggression. Chinese authorities have signaled that they would not escalate a trade war but instead focus on bolstering their internal markets and exploring new international opportunities.
The CPC’s official stance is to promote stability in US-China relations and the broader international system. However, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s intentions, particularly his threat to impose 60 Percent tariffs on all Chinese exports, has left Chinese officials anxious. The revocation of China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status remains a looming fear, as it would dismantle the foundation of US-China economic relations established through China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO).
China’s leadership might adopt a dual approach in dealing with the US under a potential Trump presidency. On one hand, they could endure the economic strain, banking on America’s economic vulnerabilities and China’s passive stance to encourage Trump to shift focus to another adversary. On the other hand, they might leverage their economic influence over US allies, enticing them with greater market access in return for lobbying the Trump administration for a more tempered approach.
However, the risk of alienating Chinese consumers due to prolonged economic hardship is a significant concern for the CPC. Should economic conditions deteriorate further, domestic discontent could surge, jeopardizing the Party’s stability. Consequently, China might find it imperative to adopt a more assertive security policy if economic engagement continues to yield unsatisfactory results. This could involve a heightened military and diplomatic stance, particularly concerning Taiwan, as a means to counteract US pressure.
Alternatively, China could attempt a more conciliatory approach, aiming to reduce anti-China sentiment within the US. By pledging investments in American job creation and negotiating trade limits, China could potentially gain leverage over US policy. However, such gestures might be perceived by Trump as a sign of weakness, prompting him to intensify his pressure tactics. Moreover, the uncertainty of US electoral outcomes means any agreement could be short-lived, subject to renegotiation with subsequent administrations.
Aligning closely with US positions on global conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, also poses a dilemma for China. While resolving these conflicts might free up US resources to focus more on China, aligning too closely with the US could undermine China’s strategic interests and autonomy.
As 2025 approaches, the most plausible scenario entails a period of heightened tension and cautious maneuvering between China and a new US administration. Both sides will likely assess each other’s strengths and vulnerabilities, striving to find a pragmatic balance that limits further damage to their bilateral relationship. The prevailing economic uncertainty may encourage both nations to adopt more measured approaches, fostering a cautious optimism that pragmatism will prevail over confrontation.
The CPC’s response to America’s unpredictable 2024 election will be shaped by a blend of strategic patience and readiness for assertive action. As China navigates the complexities of US political dynamics, its leaders will seek to safeguard economic stability and national security, while remaining prepared for the challenges posed by a potentially hostile US administration. The evolving US-China relationship will continue to be a critical axis around which global economic and geopolitical developments revolve.
